welcome

Two German merchant ships have sailed through the once impassable North East Passage after global warming and melting ice opened a route from South Korea along Russia's Arctic coast to Siberia.

A pair of German merchant ships are seen as they traverse the fabled Northeast Passage Photo: AP

The ships are poised to complete their journey through the cold waters where icebergs abound, heading for Rotterdam in the Netherlands with 3,500 tons of construction parts.

The merchant ships MV Beluga Fraternity and MV Beluga Foresight arrived this week in Yamburg, Siberia, their owner Beluga Shipping GmbH said yesterday.

CLIMATE change is everywhere. Not only is the physical climate changing, but the idea of climate change is now active across the full range of human endeavours. Climate change has moved from being a predominantly physical phenomenon to being a social one, in the process reshaping the way we think about ourselves, our societies and humanity's place on Earth.

I am primarily a climate scientist who has worked with climate data, models and scenarios. But I am now more interested in how we think and talk about climate change, how we use the idea to support various projects, and how - paradoxically - we could use it to make the world a better place. I argue that just as we need to understand the physical changes that are sweeping the planet, we also need to understand climate change as a cultural and psychological phenomenon.

And it is a phenomenon. Just as the transformation of the physical climate is inescapable, so the idea of climate change is now unavoidable. It is circulating anxiously in the worlds of domestic politics and international diplomacy, and with mobilising force in business, law, academia, development, welfare, religion, ethics, art and celebrity.

Yet in each of these spheres the idea of climate change carries quite different meanings and seems to imply different courses of action. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has constructed a powerful scientific consensus about the physical transformation of the world's climate. This is a reality that I believe in. But there is no comparable consensus about what the idea of climate change actually means. If we are to use the idea constructively, we first need new ways of looking at the phenomenon and making sense of it.

One way I do this is to rethink our discourses about climate change in terms of four enduring myths. I use "myths" not to imply falsehoods but in the anthropological sense - stories we tell that embody deeper assumptions about the world around us.

First is the Edenic myth, which talks about climate change using the language of lament and nostalgia, revealing our desire to return to some simpler, more innocent era. In this myth, climate is cast as part of a fragile natural world that needs to be protected. It shows that we are uneasy with the unsought powers we now have to change the global climate.

Next, the Apocalyptic myth talks about climate in the language of fear and disaster. This myth reveals our endemic worry about the future, but also acts as a call to action.

Then there is the Promethean myth, named after the Greek deity who stole fire from Zeus and gave it to the mortals. This talks about climate as something we must control, revealing our desire for dominance and mastery over nature but also that we lack the wisdom and humility to exercise it.

Finally, the Themisian myth, named after the Greek goddess of natural law and order, talks about climate change using the language of justice and equity. Climate change becomes an idea around which calls for environmental justice are announced, revealing the human urge to right wrongs.

The value in identifying these mythical stories in our discourses about climate change is that they allow us to see climate change not as simply an environmental problem to be solved, but as an idea that is being mobilised in various ways around the world. If we continue to naively understand the climate system as something to be mastered and controlled, then we will have missed the main opportunities offered us by climate change.

From a practical perspective, that means rethinking our responses to climate change. Rather than placing ourselves in a "fight against climate change" we should use the idea of climate change to rethink and renegotiate our wider social and political goals.

How so? For one thing, climate change allows us to examine our projects more closely and more honestly than we have been used to, whether they be projects of trade, community-building, poverty reduction, demographic management, social and psychological health, personal well-being or self-determination. Climate change demands that we focus on the long-term implications of our short-term choices and recognise the global reach of our actions. This means asking both "what is the impact of this project on the climate?" and also "how does the reality of climate change alter how we can achieve this goal?"

Climate change also teaches us to rethink what we really want for ourselves and humanity. The four mythical ways of thinking about climate change reflect back to us truths about the human condition that are both comforting and disturbing. They suggest that even were we to know precisely what we wanted - wealth, communal harmony, social justice or mere survival - we are limited in our abilities to acquire or deliver those goals.

Having established that climate change is as much an idea as a physical phenomenon, we can deploy it in positive and creative ways. It can stimulate new thinking about technology. It can inspire new artistic creations. It can provoke new ethical and theological thinking. It can arouse new interest in how science and culture interrelate. It can galvanise new social movements to explore new ways of living in urban and rural settings. It can touch each one of us as we reflect on the goals and values that matter to us. And, of course, the idea of climate change can invigorate efforts to protect ourselves from the hazards of climate change.

It is important to note that these creative uses of the idea of climate change do not demand consensus over its meaning. Indeed, they may be hindered by the search for agreement. They thrive in conditions of pluralism.

Nor are they uses that will necessarily lead to stabilising climate - they will not "solve" climate change. This does not imply passivity in the face of change, however. Nor does it allow us to deny that our actions on this planet are changing the climate. But it does suggest that making climate control our number one political priority might not be the most fruitful way of using the idea of climate change.

The world's climates will keep on changing, with human influences now inextricably entangled with those of nature. So too will the idea of climate change keep changing as we find new ways of using it to meet our needs. We will continue to create and tell new stories about climate change and mobilise these stories in support of our projects. Whereas a modernist reading of climate may once have regarded it as merely a physical condition for human action, we must now come to terms with climate change operating simultaneously as an overlying, but more fluid, imaginative condition of human existence.

Contraception is almost five times cheaper as a means of preventing climate change than conventional green technologies, according to research by the London School of Economics.

UN data suggests that meeting unmet need for family planning would reduce unintended births by 72 per cent Photo: PA

Every £4 spent on family planning over the next four decades would reduce global CO2 emissions by more than a ton, whereas a minimum of £19 would have to be spent on low-carbon technologies to achieve the same result, the research says.

The report, Fewer Emitter, Lower Emissions, Less Cost, concludes that family planning should be seen as one of the primary methods of emissions reduction. The UN estimates that 40 per cent of all pregnancies worldwide are unintended.

If these basic family planning needs were met, 34 gigatons (billion tonnes) of CO2 would be saved – equivalent to nearly 6 times the annual emissions of the US and almost 60 times the UK’s annual total.

Roger Martin, chairman of the Optimum Population Trust at the LSE, said: “It’s always been obviously that total emissions depend on the number of emitters as well as their individual emissions – the carbon tonnage can’t shoot down as we want, while the population keeps shooting up.”

UN data suggests that meeting unmet need for family planning would reduce unintended births by 72 per cent, reducing projected world population in 2050 by half a billion to 8.64 million.

The research is published on the day that the Government’s climate change advisers, the Climate Change Committee, warned households and industry that a planned 80 per cent reduction in emissions are likely to prove insufficient.

Millions of children could die because cash for food aid is diverted to tackle climate change, Oxfam has warned.

As part of a global climate change deal to be agreed in Copenhagen in December, the rich world is being asked to come up with billions of pounds to help developing countries cope with global warming. The money would be spent on helping poor countries adapt to increased risk of flooding and droughts.

Next week world leaders will meet at a UN Summit in New York to discuss where the money will come from and how much should be put aside.

However aid agencies are becoming increasingly concerned that the money will be diverted from existing funds to help countries deal with poverty, child malnutrition, Aids and other issues.

A new Oxfam report has warned that at least 4.5 million children could die, more than 75 million fewer children are likely to attend school and 8.6 million fewer people could have access to HIV/Aids treatment if aid is diverted to help poor countries tackle climate change.

Oxfam believe that £30 billion should be made available every year for climate change adaptation in addition to the 0.7 per cent of national income rich countries have already pledged as aid.

Barbara Stocking, Chief Execuctive of Oxfam Great Britain, said the money for climate change adaptation must not come out of development funds or millions more people will die.

”Forcing poor countries to choose between life saving drugs for the sick, schooling for their children or the means to protect themselves against climate change is an unfair burden that will only exacerbate poverty”, she said.

“Stealing money from tomorrow’s schools and hospitals to help poor people adapt to climate change is neither a moral nor effective way of rich countries paying their climate debt. Funds must be increased not diverted”, she added.

A dolls' house, designed to educate children about global warming, is expected to be one of the best selling presents this Christmas, a department store has predicted.

The eco-friendly dolls house is expected to be the next big toy this Christmas Photo: Selfridges

The dolls' house is equipped with all the latest eco-friendly devices, including solar panels, a wind turbine, recycling bins and a rain water butt. The dolls can even lounge on a sofa made from recycled chipboard.

The toy is on sale at Selfridges for £149.99 and has been manufactured by Plan Toys, a Thai company that makes all of its products using sustainable wood, lead-free paint and in factories powered by biomass energy.

Michael Berry, Selfridges’ toy shop buyer said: “This house is a wonderfully educational toy that will really inspire kids and through play help them to become more aware about the environment around them. We expect the Green Dollhouse to be a huge hit with parents this Christmas and we are already starting to take orders in our new toy department.”

The dollhouse’s energy efficient design also includes an electric inverter for generating electricity, a biofacade, which uses the natural cycle of plant growth to provide shading, and a blind that can adjust the amount of sun light and air circulation.

Dolls' houses, now considered a very traditional toy, have sometimes been used to show case the latest house building technology and interior design. The most famous of these was Queen Mary's Dolls' House, completed in 1924 for the wife of George V.

Designed by Sir Ediwn Lutyens, it was fitted out with working electrical lights, lifts, flushable lavatories, displaying the best design the British Empire's leading manufacturers could muster.

They have been called “negawatts” — the vast amounts of electricity and heat wasted around the world every day from homes, businesses and appliances as well as ageing power plants.

Energy efficiency may sound unglamorous set against plans for shimmering new solar power plants or giant offshore wind farms.

But it is hard to dispute Professor Chu’s assertion that it represents the easiest route to large reductions in global carbon dioxide emissions.

The US Government claims that better buildings alone could cut US energy use by a third. Modest improvements to existing buildings would allow cuts of 10 per cent.

About half the energy produced by burning coal or gas at a British power station is lost immediately as heat. More goes in transmission to consumers and more still at household level with inefficient use of appliances, lights and devices needlessly left on.

A true revolution would affect almost every facet of modern life, but the technology exists. Finland has heat and power plants where more than 90 per cent of raw energy produced is delivered. In Italy, 30 million “smart meters” — encouraging efficiency — sit on walls of homes and businesses.

But the shift takes time and can be expensive. Britain faces real challenges because of the age of its housing stock. The Government talks of energy efficiency as a key plank in its wider aim of slashing emissions by 34 per cent by 2020, but concrete achievements are rare.

Stop-start funding has hit the Low Carbon Building Programme, while the carbon emissions reduction target has been open to abuse with many power companies finding the cheapest way to meet their obligations is to distribute vast numbers of low-energy light bulbs – with no need to show how many are actually used.

The nation's first functioning electricity "smart grid" is now operating in Boulder. How smart is Xcel Energy's $100 million SmartGridCity that will ultimately enable Boulder residents to keep track of their energy use day to day?

 

It's so smart that it knew there was a power outage in one neighborhood 34 minutes before the first resident called the utility.

It's so smart that the number of customer-voltage complaints — about either surges or drops — went from 70 in 2007 to zero so far this year.

It's so smart that it identified a transformer that was overloaded and needed to be replaced — before it got fried.

In the past, the utility knew to replace transformers when they blew and lights went out.

"It is a completely new way of managing our system," said Randy Huston, who oversees Xcel's SmartGridCity.

The Obama administration is promoting the smart-grid concept and has provided $4 billion in funding.

"That has really raised the level of activity," said Ed Legge, an analyst with the Edison Electric Institute, a trade organization. "But Xcel has been a real leader and in the forefront of getting an overall smart grid up."

Just about every one of the 90 investor-owned utilities has a project or proposal, said Matt Wakefield, smartgrid program manager for the Electric Power Research Institute.

"Most are looking at one or two elements in the system; very few are trying to be comprehensive," he said.

The core of Xcel's project, which began in May 2008, is a "broadband over power line" system that enables meters and sensors to instantaneously send data back to Xcel's operations center.

That information is flowing from 27 distribution feeds, eight reclosure or safety switches and 4,192 transformers.

The next step, later this fall, will be to collect and share information with about 25,000 homes and businesses that have installed or will install "smart meters."

About 96 percent of Boulder homes — 46,120 — are enabled for the meters, but the program is voluntary.

Those customers will be able to log on to a website to see their hour-by- hour electricity use. Some homes also will be linked right down to electricity-consuming appliances and lights.

Xcel is investing about $27 million in the project; the remaining $73 million is coming from grants and six high-tech companies that are partners in the project.

The sharing of information, from transformers down to the kitchen refrigerator, will "transform" the system, Xcel's Huston said.

While Xcel will be able to manage voltage, limit blackouts and identify failing equipment, homeowners will be able to figure out when and how they are consuming energy.

"Everyone will be smarter," Huston said.

The North Sea will provide Britain with a natural resource worth as much as £10 billion a year if the Government exploits it as a store for carbon dioxide (CO2 ) captured from power stations, scientists have said.

Britain has more storage space for waste CO2 than all other northern European countries combined, with the exception of Norway, according to research that suggests carbon capture and storage (CCS) could be one of the boom industries of the next 20 years.

The extent of suitable rock formations beneath British territorial waters, principally in the North Sea, mean Britain could make as much as £5 billion a year from selling licences to store CO2 to countries such as Germany, Denmark and Poland, the British Science Festival in Guildford was told.

The market for storage technology could be worth another £3 billion to £5 billion, and the industry could support up to 240,000 jobs — almost as many as currently employed in the North Sea oil and gas industries.

Urgent government investment is needed, however, to ensure this opportunity is not lost, said Stuart Haszeldine, a geologist from the University of Edinburgh. Other countries, such as the US and Australia, are currently investing more in the field.

While technology for removing CO2 from fossil fuel-fired power stations already exists, it is currently expensive, adding about a third to electricity bills. The cost, however, is forecast to plummet over the next two decades, creating a new market for storing this waste CO2 safely that Britain is ideally placed to exploit.

Saltwater aquifers and spent oil and gasfields under British territorial waters are capable of storing huge amounts of the greenhouse gas Dr Haszeldine said. “It’s a huge asset to sell and provide for Europe.”

Dr Haszeldine’s research has indicated that Britain controls sandstone rock formations beneath the sea bed capable of holding up to 150 billion tonnes of CO2 . “These are massive storage capacities the UK has got, the equivalent of hundreds of years of UK power stations,” he said.

“The estimates from the initial study by the UK Government suggest we will have 60,000 people employed in this by 2030. I think this is an underestimate, a very cautious estimate. My estimate is it could be four times that, but that depends on the actions we take now, because the UK is in a very competitive situation internationally.

“The estimate for revenue would be something like £3 billion or £5 billion a year by 2030, but again that’s a cautious underestimate. If we sell our storage capacity, that on its own could produce about £5 billion a year.”

Mike Stephenson, of the British Geological Survey, said Britain needed to match American investment. “In the US they’re thinking a little ahead of us,” he said. “Already in Texas, the Gulf Coast is advertising itself as the CO2 sink for the US. It’s saying, ‘if you want to get rid of your CO2 , we’ll bury it for you and charge you for it’.

“There’s a similarity between the Gulf Coast and the North Sea. We could use this storage space to bury CO2 for Europe, and to charge for it. It’s a big opportunity for the United Kingdom.”

The key to ensuring Britain reaps the benefits of this natural resource is for the Government to have at least four, and preferably five, demonstration projects in place by 2016, Dr Haszeldine said. At present, the Department for Energy and Climate Change is committed to one such project, and is considering another three.

“We need to capitalise on our technical ability and this huge storage asset, and do not just one demonstration project - which the Government has talked about being ready by 2014, but to go for those four demonstrations, and probably to five, by 2016,” Dr Haszeldine said.

“The projects must test different types of storage.

“These are demonstrations, mark-one pieces of equipment. We need to learn from these, and have mark-two equipment, this has to be standard practice to compete in the world by 2020.”

CCS involves chemical processes that remove CO2 either from flue gases produced from burning coal or natural gas, or from the fuels themselves before they are burned. The CO2 is then collected, pressurised, and then pumped through pipelines into deep geological formations, usually beneath the sea bed.

A demonstration project at the Sleipner oil field in the North Sea has been operated by the Norwegian oil company Statoil since 1996, taking a million tonnes of CO2 each year.

“It’s like an oil field in reverse,” Dr Haszeldine said. “Instead of having boreholes and sucking oil out of them, you feed CO2 in through a pipe.”

CLIMATE CHANGE CURE?: By running the flue gas from Moss Landing's mammoth smokestacks through ocean water, a new company can make cement from carbon dioxide pollution. COURTESY OF DYNEGY

The turbines at Moss Landing power plant on the California coast burn through natural gas to pump out more than 1,000 megawatts of electric power. The 700-degree Fahrenheit (370-degree Celsius) fumes left over contain at least 30,000 parts per million of carbon dioxide (CO₂)—the primary greenhouse gas responsible for global warming—along with other pollutants.

Today, this flue gas wafts up and out of the power plant's enormous smokestacks, but by simply bubbling it through the nearby seawater, a new California-based company called Calera says it can use more than 90 percent of that CO₂ to make something useful: cement.

It's a twist that could make a polluting substance into a way to reduce greenhouse gases. Cement, which is mostly commonly composed of calcium silicates, requires heating limestone and other ingredients to 2,640 degrees F (1,450 degrees C) by burning fossil fuels and is the third largest source of greenhouse gas pollution in the U.S., according to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. Making one ton of cement results in the emission of roughly one ton of CO₂—and in some cases much more.

While Calera's process of making calcium carbonate cement wouldn't eliminate all CO₂ emissions, it would reverse that equation. "For every ton of cement we make, we are sequestering half a ton of CO₂," says crystallographer Brent Constantz, founder of Calera. "We probably have the best carbon capture and storage technique there is by a long shot."

Carbon capture and storage has been identified by experts ranging from the U.N.'s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change to the leaders of the world's eight richest nations (G8) as crucial to the fight against climate change. The idea is to capture the CO₂ and other greenhouse gases produced when burning fossil fuels, such as coal or natural gas, and then permanently store it, such as in deep-sea basalt formations.

Calera's process takes the idea a step forward by storing the CO₂ in a useful product. The U.S. used more than 122 million metric tons of Portland cement in 2006, according to the Portland Cement Association (PCA), an industry group, and China used at least 800 million metric tons.

The Calera process essentially mimics marine cement, which is produced by coral when making their shells and reefs, taking the calcium and magnesium in seawater and using it to form carbonates at normal temperatures and pressures. "We are turning CO₂ into carbonic acid and then making carbonate," Constantz says. "All we need is water and pollution."

The company employs spray dryers that utilize the heat in the flue gas to dry the slurry that results from mixing the water and pollution. "A gas-fired power plant is basically like attaching a jet engine to the ground," Constantz notes. "We use the waste heat of the flue gas. They're just shooting it up into the atmosphere anyway."

In essence, the company is making chalk, and that's the color of the resulting cement: snow white. Once dried, the Calera cement can be used as a replacement for the Portland cement that is typically blended with rock and other material to make the concrete in everything from roads to buildings. "We think since we're making the cement out of CO₂, the more you use, the better," says Constantz, who formerly made medical cements. "Make that wall five feet thick, sequester CO₂, and be cooler in summer, warmer in winter and more seismically stable. Or make a road twice as thick."

Of course, Calera isn't the only company pursuing this idea—just the most advanced. Carbon Sciences in Santa Barbara, Calif., plans to use flue gas and the water leftover after mining operations, so-called mine slime, which is often rich in magnesium and calcium, to create similar cements. Halifax, Nova Scotia–based Carbon Sense Solutions plans to accelerate the natural process of cement absorbing CO₂ by exposing a fresh batch to flue gas. And a number of companies are working on reducing the energy needs of Portland cement making. The key will be ensuring that such specialty cements have the same properties and the same or lower cost than Portland cement, says Carbon Sciences president and CEO Derek McLeish.

But the companies may also find it challenging to get their cements approved by regulators and, more importantly, accepted by the building trade, says civil engineer Steven Kosmatka of the Portland Cement Association. "The construction industry is very conservative," he adds. "It took PCA about 25 years to get the standards changed to allow 5 percent limestone [in the Portland cement mix]. So things move kind of slowly."

Calera hopes to get over that hurdle quickly by first offering a blend of its carbon-storing cement and Portland cement, which would not initially store any extra greenhouse gases but would at least balance out the emissions from making the traditional mortar. "It's just a little better than carbon neutral," notes Constantz, who will make his case to the industry at large at the World of Concrete trade fair in February. "That alone is a huge step forward."

"Could you take this calcium carbonate and add it to Portland cement? You sure can," Kosmatka says. "Could you add it to the ready mix to replace some of the Portland cement? You probably can do that, too." That would help to rein in the greenhouse gas emissions from buildings—both from building them and powering them once they are built—that makes up 48 percent of U.S. global warming pollution.

Nor are there any limitations on the raw materials of the Calera cement: Seawater containing billions of tons of calcium and magnesium covers 70 percent of the planet and the 2,775 power plants in the U.S. alone pumped out 2.5 billion metric tons of CO₂ in 2006. The process results in seawater that is stripped of calcium and magnesium—ideal for desalinization technologies—but safe to be dumped back into the ocean. And attaching the Calera process to the nation's more than 600 coal-fired power plants or even steel mills and other industrial sources is even more attractive as burning coal results in flue gas with as much as 150,000 parts per million of CO₂.

But Calera is starting with the cleanest fossil fuel—natural gas. The company has set up a pilot plant at Moss Landing because California is soon to adopt regulations limiting the amount of CO₂ power plants and other sources can emit, and natural gas is the primary fuel of power plants in that state. According to Constantz, some flue gas is already running through the company's process. "We are using emissions from gas-fired generation as our CO₂ source at the pilot plant where we are making up to 10 tons a day," he says. "That material will be used for evaluations."

The California Department of Transportation (Caltrans) has expressed interest in testing the cement, and Dynegy, owner of the Moss Landing power plant, is also intrigued. Although no formal agreement has been struck, "their proposed technology for capturing CO₂ from flue gases and turning it into a beneficial, marketable product sounds very interesting to us," Dynegy spokesman David Byford says. "There are very good technologies for capturing the emissions of other pollutants. The carbon issue is something we are just turning our attention to now, and so far it's been quite elusive."

Will the Electric Car Ever Make It to the Mass Market?

Germany's automakers are proudly showing off their concept electric cars at the Frankfurt motor show, which opens to the public Thursday. But the shiny new designs on display are just a pipe dream. It's still not clear when, or even if, viable electric cars will make it onto the mass market.

Amid widespread concerns about global warming, it's practically official policy at the European Commission these days to see electricity consumption as a sin. The bureaucrats in Brussels have recently gone so far as to ban the production of 100-watt incandescent light bulbs.

So far, however, there have been no limits set on a much bigger consumer of electricity -- the automobile. When the 63rd International Motor Show (IAA) opens to the public this Thursday in Frankfurt, visitors can check out designs for electric cars whose power rating will exceed that of the banned bulb by a factor of many thousands.

Mercedes-Benz will be showing a 392-kilowatt concept electric sports car, while Audi is presenting a similarly powerful electric version of its top-of-the-range R8 model. BMW will demonstrate alternative engine systems with its "Vision Efficient Dynamics," a hybrid composed of a three-cylinder diesel engine flanked by two electric motors, which is supposed to have a top speed of 250 kilometers per hour (155 miles per hour). "Economizing is getting sexy!" is the verdict of the German car magazine Auto Bild.

But before environmental organizations show up to point out the real carbon footprint of such energy guzzlers, the manufacturers would do well to point out an important fact up front, namely that such high horsepower electric cars are not market-ready, and not a serious option even in the long run. Even the best batteries would run out within a few minutes of being driven at full power.

Pure Fantasy

And so the first IAA to take place in the age of the electric car proves one thing above all -- that giving up gasoline, which can still provide energy in abundance, won't be easy. The desire to create similarly powerful engines using electricity is, for the time being, pure fantasy.

Nonetheless, a conviction seems to have spread throughout the industry that there will be a mass market for electric cars, and that it will probably happen in the decade between 2020 and 2030. Developers estimate that by then storage capacity will have increased two- or three-fold. That could be enough, at least for a car with a small engine.

Electrochemical parameters still set rather narrow limits on the potential of electric cars. The best lithium-ion batteries currently weigh slightly less than 10 kilograms (22 pounds) per kilowatt hour. The first small-series production cars, such as those from Smart or Mitsubishi, have a capacity of 16 to 20 kilowatt hours. That's the equivalent of the energy content of about two liters (0.5 gallons) of gas.

Manufacturers calculate this can provide a driving distance of 100 kilometers (62 miles) or more. But these consumption measurements use extremely slow standard driving cycles as their basis -- the ideal conditions for an electric motor.

Short Range

In practice, these figures could shrink by as much as half when higher speed driving is combined with further sources of energy consumption such as heating or air conditioning. And who wants to buy a car whose range is so small that even a short trip to the outskirts of town would entail constant worries that the batteries might die? One BMW manager sneers that "people won't be able to think about anything but electrical outlets."

In addition, this extremely limited mobility comes with a very high price tag. Lithium batteries with a capacity of 20 kilowatt hours cost around €20,000 ($29,000). That price should sink by about a third when the batteries one day go into mass production. This is the manufacturers' second big hope -- the batteries eventually need to be three times as good and three times as cheap as those available today. Then things start looking more promising for the electric car.

Until electric cars really do hit the streets en masse, so-called plug-in hybrids present a practical interim solution. These are cars that include a conventional internal combustion engine along with the electric motor. Toyota, the pioneer in hybrid technology, has followed precisely this pragmatic path, and will be showing the plug-in version of its Prius model at the IAA.

This partially electric vehicle has a comparatively small battery pack, which is charged from an electrical outlet and can power the car for about 20 kilometers (12 miles). Once the charge is used up, the gasoline-powered motor kicks in, and the ride continues with an economical hybrid system that continues to switch between the electric and combustion engines.

Daimler too will present an S-Class model with a plug-in hybrid system in Frankfurt. The car's energy consumption, fuelled by both gasoline and the power grid, is supposed to be equivalent to a conventional vehicle with a fuel efficiency of three liters of gas per 100 kilometers (78 miles per gallon). This constellation should be ready for series production with the next generation of the company's luxury model in 2013.

Gradual Evolution

This approach -- using a gradual evolution of hybrid technology to eventually reach purely electric-powered vehicles -- is the only plausible strategy. But Western manufacturers are perceptibly lagging behind. The previous IAA, in September 2005, marked a turning point. At the time, car companies in Europe and the US admitted to having missed the boat. Without exception, they all announced their own hybrid systems.

The gap, however, is still enormous. Toyota has already sold more than a million hybrid cars. Volkswagen dealerships, meanwhile, have yet to see a single one. It's the same with Opel, Peugeot, Fiat and Renault. Mercedes is currently producing a very limited number of S-Class hybrids, about 40 a day. They have a so-called "mild hybrid" engine -- a simpler variation following Honda's example, in which the electric engine can only act as support, not power the car alone.

The far more ambitious full hybrid system has been presenting developers with formidable hurdles. Mercedes, BMW and General Motors spent four years on a project called "Two Mode." It outdid Toyota's system considerably in terms of complexity -- and also ended up being far too expensive. The elaborate electromechanical systems created in the project will be used in a few hefty sport utility vehicles and then disappear off the market again. All the participating companies have agreed not to continuing developing the system.

Volkswagen together with its new subsidiary Porsche wanted to present the hybrid versions of their Touareg and Cayenne models at this year's Frankfurt motor show, but they still haven't got the project under control. Integrating a full hybrid system into a traditional powertrain requires a very complicated control system. Both vehicles won't be released until next year, and they'll also be sold at a very high price -- to which the manufacturers are apparently still adding. "We can congratulate any customer who decides against the Touareg hybrid," one VW manager admits.

There is a certain bitter humor in the fact that the same companies which are delivering such pitiful results when it comes to relatively basic electric car technology also want to make IAA visitors believe they already have electric sports cars in the works.

Part 2: German Companies Play Catch-Up

In any case, the arduous pursuit of the electric car has created centers of expertise, albeit less with the car manufacturers than with their suppliers. While Toyota develops nearly all its electrical motor components in house, down to semiconductors and batteries, its Western counterparts outsource this area.

Many car companies and suppliers have now forged relationships with battery manufacturers. The field is largely dominated by Japanese and South Korean producers. German auto parts producer Bosch relies on Samsung, VW gets components from Toshiba, among others, while Opel works with LG Chem in South Korea. Only Daimler gets its electronics locally, from an Evonic subsidiary in eastern Germany called Li-Tec.

"Three to four major battery producers will prevail in the end," estimates Bernd Bohr, the head of Bosch's automotive group. He believes that large system suppliers like Bosch will dominate the market when it comes to the integration of electric engine components, especially the development of the power electronics that control the flow of electrical current.

Stuttgart-based Bosch was long considered Germany's champion as far as automobile electronics were concerned -- even if the focus was previously on the combustion engine. After all, the company logo even features an armature from a magneto ignition.

However Bohr admits that Bosch underestimated the hybrid and electric engine business for too long and entered the field too late. But he believes his company is catching up. "Bosch has always had considerable stamina when it has to sprint," he says. He adds that order volume for hybrid and electric engines is now looking good.

Bold Plans

Noticeably better positioned is a competitor usually associated more with rubber tires, although more recently it gained a doleful prominence as the object of a corporate takeover which ended in tears. Continental, of all companies, is Germany's pivotal technology company in the field of hybrid and electric engines.

The company was already producing the first hybrid components for GM five years ago, and so far Continental has invested more than €500 million in the segment. About 800 employees -- around twice as many as Bosch employs in the sector -- work here on more than 20 projects related to electric motors, including Mercedes' S-Class hybrid, the electric Smart, and the Opel Ampera.

The most spectacular electric car project to be announced so far will apparently also take to the streets with Continental technology. The French-Japanese alliance of Renault and Nissan has signaled that it will soon be manufacturing 100,000 electric cars a year -- a bold plan.

In the run-up to the IAA, Continental was planning to reveal that it has started to develop the central engine components for an electric vehicle which will be launched on the market in large-scale production in 2011. The supplier isn't at liberty to say which manufacturer is involved in this project, but in this case the point is moot -- aside from Renault/Nissan, no other company has comparable plans.

Revolutionary Concept?

The mass-produced electric car is supposed to help Shai Agassi's "Better Place" project to get off the ground. A former board member at the software giant SAP, Agassi was a shooting star in the IT industry and now seems to be taking over the media role that the entrepreneur Nicolas Hayek, a co-founder of the watch company Swatch, occupied in the 1990's. Hayek seduced the industry's major players with his vision of an ultra-ecological "Swatch car," ultimately winning over VW and later Daimler as partners. The end result was the Smart car, a purely Daimler product with some memorable birth defects.

A similar development is foreseeable with Renault and Better Place. Agassi has taken on the role of the virtuoso public speaker, calling his company "the leading electric vehicle services provider," without much substance to show for it. The battery switch stations that are supposed to be Better Place's great idea will for the time being only be available in limited numbers in Agassi's native Israel. And the project's revolutionary concept still relies on the time-tested electrical outlet.

In the end, all car companies are going to have to tackle this problem. It's not the infrastructure for electric cars that's missing, but practical and affordable storage technology.

Renault and Nissan are risking the leap to series production using batteries from the Japanese manufacturer NEC. The goal is an impressive capacity of 24 kilowatt hours. But the prototypes shown so far have had little over half of that.

A communication system from startup Better Place lets drivers know how far their batteries will take them and where to find a fresh charge

Shai Agassi and his Better Place startup may have a long way to go before realizing their vision of a future where electric vehicles are in vogue. But they came a step closer on Sept. 15 at the high-profile Frankfurt Auto Show when they demonstrated a system for managing data communications between vehicles, battery switching stations, and electric utilities. "This is a key piece" of making mass adoption of electric vehicles feasible, says analyst Thilo Kowslowski of tech market researcher Gartner Group (IT). "You need real-time communications between the vehicle, the charging infrastructure, and the electric grid."

Tapping knowhow from Intel (INTC), Microsoft (MSFT), and other tech stalwarts, the system makes it possible for drivers of electric vehicles to know how far they can drive on a battery charge and where they can find the nearest battery switching or charging station. It also tracks vehicles and drivers' habits so Better Place can manage battery inventories at switching stations efficiently. And it makes it possible for Better Place to manage the battery charging process to avoid troublesome electricity demand spikes.

Several major challenges remain for Better Place. It needs to win over major automakers in addition to the Renault-Nissan alliance that it has already signed. And it also needs to raise billions of dollars to pay for the batteries, which it will own, at $12,000 each, and to pay for the installation of battery switching stations, at an estimated $500,000 each.

Worth the Investment?

Setting up those stations will be no mean feat. It could cost as much as $200 billion to pay for the battery switching and charging infrastructure for the entire U.S., says Mark Duvall, an analyst at the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI), a nonprofit think tank. "It's not clear that the level of interest in pure electric vehicles, as opposed to plug-in hybrids, will support the massive investment," he says.

Better Place has addressed issues raised by skeptics before. The Palo Alto (Calif.) company has already announced plans for widespread adoption of its system with the cooperation of governments in Israel and Denmark. A demonstration conducted in Japan in May showed that Better Place's battery-switching station technology could replace a spent battery with a fully charged one in a mere 40 seconds, far less time than it typically takes to refuel a conventional auto.

Agassi, a former software industry wunderkind with Germany's SAP (SAP), has a goal of providing the communications and physical infrastructure to enable countries and metropolitan areas to rapidly convert to using electric vehicles and shake off their dependency on oil.

In his unabashedly confident style, Agassi predicts that, years from now, when electric vehicle transportation is the norm, the Frankfurt announcement will be recalled as a turning point in automotive history. "This will be remembered as the equivalent to the introduction of the Ford Model T," he says. With its affordability and convenience, Ford's (F) Model T turned automobiles into a mass market and established the gasoline engine as their means of locomotion. Agassi says his technology will be ready to be installed in cars in time for the planned late-2010 test of the complete transportation system in Israel. He hopes to have the system running for consumers in 2011.

An EV That's Competitive in Price

In Frankfurt, the data communications system is being demonstrated in conjunction with Renault (RENA.PA), which plans on supplying cars for Better Place's Israel and Denmark projects. The in-dashboard piece of the system is installed in one of four EV concept vehicles that Renault is unveiling at the show—a full-size sedan. Renault predicts that its electric vehicles, which will go on sale in 2011 and 2012, will cost about the same as a comparable gasoline-powered vehicle, and that the cost of operating them will be equal to or less than that of gas-powered vehicles. Two of the four models will use Better Place batteries and work with its system, according to a Renault spokesperson.

The concept car that will be part of the Renault and Better Place demo in Frankfurt is the Fluence ZE, a five-seat-sedan. Better Place will begin importing and selling the car in the first half of 2011 in Israel and will offer subscriptions to customers buying this car from the Renault network in Denmark. The two companies are committing to a volume of at least 100,000 vehicles for both countries by 2016.

Agassi calls his technology the "information train" for operating electric vehicles—in contrast to the mechanical "drivetrain." Software and electronic gadgetry will be installed in auto dashboards to manage navigation and track the vehicle's location. Software installed at Better Place's command centers will learn from a driver's behavior and use that information to predict future driving patterns. A key element is managing the use of electricity for charging batteries in charging stations and vehicles to smooth out the impact on the electrical grid. Better Place will charge a monthly subscription for the service.

Rather than inventing all of the technology itself, Better Place formed partnerships with chipmaker Intel, software maker Microsoft, and electronics manufacturer Flextronics (FLEX) to provide key components. It's using software packages from SAP and Amdocs (DOX) to manage accounting and billing. Microsoft supplies a computer operating system for the in-dash system. "We view electric cars as roaming consumer electronic devices, which have the potential to move from niche product to mainstream, and we're delighted that Better Place is using Microsoft technology," says John Fikany, Microsoft's vice-president for commercial sector industries.

Still, an Uncertain Future

This partnering approach makes it possible for Better Place to keep its costs under control. It has just 70 employees. Better Place raised $200 million in 2007 to fund its launch and the costs of running the pilot project in Israel. Its subsidiaries in Israel, Denmark, and Australia are in the process of raising funds to finance startup and expansion costs.

While Better Place is one of the electric vehicle industry's pioneers, its future is anything but certain. Agassi placed a big bet on the idea that consumers will want to buy EVs as their primary vehicles—and battery switching would be necessary for them to take long trips. But others, such as EPRI's Duvall, believe it's likely that consumers will initially buy EVs as second cars, and all they'll need is recharging stations. Another Silicon Valley startup, Coulomb Technologies in Campbell, Calif., has developed charging technology and a software system for coordinating with the grid.

Agassi is confident his strategy will prevail, however. He contends: "Nobody else has a solution that targets mainstream consumers, with a nice car and with unlimited range and capabilities."

The U.S. Department of Energy is exploring the use of advanced flywheel technology as it applies to massive energy storage. Huge flywheels suspended by magnets inside vacuum champers can store excess energy on a power grid when demand is low, then give it back to the grid when demand is high. The technique is often greener and more efficient than traditional solutions.

Spinning flywheels have been used for centuries for jobs from making pottery to running steam engines. Now the ancient tool has been given a new job by a Massachusetts company: smooth out the electricity flow, and do it fast and clean.

Beacon Power's flywheels -- each weighing one ton, levitating in a sealed chamber and spinning up to 16,000 times per minute -- will make the electric grid more efficient and green, the company says. It's being given a chance to prove it: The U.S. Department of Energy has granted Beacon a US$43 million conditional loan guarantee to construct a 20-megawatt flywheel plant in upstate New York.

"We are very excited about this technology and this company," said Matt Rogers, a senior adviser to the Secretary of Energy. "It's a lower (carbon dioxide) impact, much faster response for a growing market need, and so we get pretty excited about that."

Backup Battery

Beacon's flywheel plant will act as a short-term energy storage system for New York's electrical distribution system, sucking excess energy off the grid when supply is high, storing it in the flywheels' spinning cores, then returning it when demand surges. The buffer protects against swings in electrical power frequency, which, in the worst cases, cause blackouts.

Such frequency regulation makes up just 1 percent of the total U.S. electricity market, but that's equal to more than $1 billion annually in revenues. The job is done now mainly by fossil-fuel powered generators that Rogers said are one-tenth the speed of flywheels and create double the carbon emissions.

Beacon said the carbon emissions saved over the 20-year life of a single 20-megawatt flywheel plant are equal to the carbon reduction achieved by planting 660,000 trees.

Flywheels also figure into the emerging renewable energy market, where intermittent energy sources such as wind and solar provide power at wildly varying intensities, depending on how long the breeze blows and sun shines. That increases the need for the faster frequency buffering, Rogers said.

Dan Rastler of the Electric Power Research Institute, an industry research group, added that if a carbon tax is passed by Congress, flywheels start looking a lot better than fossil-fuel powered alternatives.

Wheel Power

Beacon's flywheels, massive carbon and fiberglass cylinders, have already been tested on a small scale in New York, California and the company's Tyngsborough, Mass., offices. Chief executive officer Bill Capp hopes the Stephentown, N.Y., plant will be up and running by the end of 2010.

Flywheels are rotating discs or cylinders that store energy as motion, like the bicycle wheel that keeps rotating long after a pedal's been turned. That energy can be drawn off smoothly depending on the needs of the user, such as when the speed of a potter's wheel is adjusted to shape the clay as desired.

The basics of Beacon's flywheels seem simple enough as they spin silently in their chambers in a small facility outside Beacon's Tyngsborough plant. But the technological challenges to create them were immense and have cost Beacon $180 million, so far.

For instance, the one-ton flywheel had to be durable enough to spin smoothly at exceptionally high speeds. To avoid losing stored energy to friction, the flywheel levitates between magnets in a vacuum chamber.

Spin Me Up, Spin Me Down

Beacon's flywheels are powered by the excess energy they take off the grid. When demand for electricity surges, the flywheels even things out and return the energy to the grid by slowing down.

Flywheels have some clear benefits in energy storage, including the durability to store and release power hundreds of thousands of times over a long, 20-year life, said Yuri Makarov, chief scientist in power systems at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, which tested Beacon's system for the DoE. Chemical batteries being developed for the same job wear out after a couple thousand charge-and-discharge cycles.

Flywheels use less energy than fossil-fuel powered generators because they adjust more quickly to the ever-shifting demands of the electric grid by simply slowing down or spinning faster, Makarov said. Fossil-fuel generators are slower and less efficient as they constantly fire up and down.

The disadvantage of flywheels, Makarov said, is that they can only store a limited amount of energy for a limited amount of time. That can shut them out of numerous other services the grid demands -- and that other storage technologies can perform -- such as long-term power storage.

Regulations in many markets are also lagging. Beacon will bid against other power generators to provide frequency regulation, but in some markets, the bidding system doesn't even exist yet for energy storage.

Beacon's reward for taking on the technology is that it's the first flywheel company in the nation ready to provide utility-scale frequency regulation in the electric grid. Rogers said the New York project will help show whether the flywheels can do the job:

"If they're successful in New York, we'd expect this kind of technology to be picked up in many other markets around the country," he said.