SnippETS - 08 October 2008

Welcome

Welcome to another two weekly review of energy and environmental events and developments from both here in New Zealand and around the world. As always we hope you find our collection of stories to be of interest in what continues to be a rapidly evolving area.

We start with an article highlighting a study conducted amongst construction professionals that found the majority expect more than 60% or their projects to be focussed on green building within the next five years. This is up from 10% of projects at the moment and heralds an encouraging trend.

Whilst the construction sector might be encouraging, what is happening on a macro scale is anything but. Carbon dioxide output is continuing to rise, despite efforts to curb it. Richard Moss, vice president and managing director for climate change at the World Wildlife Fund said “We should be worried – really worried, this is happening in the context of trying to reduce emissions”. It appears to be the large increases from China, India, Indonesia and other developing countries that have spurred the growth in carbon dioxide pollution to a record 9.34 billion tons of carbon. Corinne Le Quere, professor of environmental sciences at the University of East Anglia and the British Antarctic Survey predicts that current emissions put the planet on track for a temperature rise of 11 degrees C, meaning the world could face a dangerous rise in sea levels as well as other drastic changes.

It seems others are also worried by this continuing trend. Google is the latest to release its clean energy plan. Its amazingly comprehensive (and detailed) plan for the US would see a reduction in carbon emissions by 95% by 2030 at the trifling cost of US$ 4.4 trillion. Only six times the recent Wall Street bailout for toxic debt. However the really good news is that it will in fact save the US US$ 1 trillion. A bargain, we say!!

Other positive trends include the growth in sustainability purchasing with a recent TerraChoice report finding that 68% of the organisations surveyed had increased their green purchasing in the past 12 months and that 91% believe they will become more active green purchasers over the next two years. Would a Hummer in British Racing Green count as a green purchase we wonder?

As most of our readers are New Zealand based (though we have a growing international audience) we have included an update on the financial performance of our electricity retailers. This shows that even in the most inclement of weather conditions (read drought) a healthy profit is still possible. And for our local authority readers, we carry an article about cities that are saving energy by changing the way they light their streets.

From the nation that hosted Black Hawk Down, we see one of the more unusual combinations of cause and effect (coupled with good spin doctoring) to justify pirating on the open seas. As we are told, due to over-fishing and the decimation of tuna fish stocks by Western nations, the impoverished Somalians have been left with no alternative but to seize ships in order to feed their people. When asked why the pirates needed $20 million to protect themselves from hunger, their spokesman Sugale Ali laughed and said “Because we have a lot of men”. So what happens when the Orange Roughy and Hoki run out?

This week we have a peek across the Ditch. Back in the 80’s Uncle Mal Coon (Cooney as the locals call him) decided he had enough of the Think Big Projects, high price of electricity and not being able to drink and drive anymore (he was a good driver, it was just the rest of them fools) and he was off to Oz. He started off in Sydney, then shifted to Alice Springs, but still found it too much of a big town experience and now lives up north of Katherine, with only beer and flies for company. Anyway I am sure he would appreciate Ross Garnaut - the key advisor to the State and Commonwealth Governments on climate change exhorting Australia to remain firm on climate change, despite its carbon emissions continuing to increase. When old Cooney said things were dry over there, we were never sure if he was referring to the ground or his throat… still their financial institutions appear, to be getting their act together with the establishment of the world’s first Climate Change Super Fund Initiative. Green is surely the new Gold.

Ecuador has granted rights to nature. Apparently two-thirds of the Ecuadorian public have voted to approve a new constitution legislating rights to nature. Now that Ecuador’s monkeys, tortoises and orchids have acquired constitutional rights, it will be interesting to see how they use them.

In our final article we investigate the ‘chemical equator’ dividing the polluted northern hemisphere from the south. Evidence of a 30 mile wide chemical band containing levels of carbon monoxide four times higher on the northern side is possibly responsible for limiting the movement of pollutants from one hemisphere to another. So glad we live down under.

Big Jump in Growth, Profits Projected for Green Building Worldwide: Report
By GreenerBuildings Staff
Published September 22, 2008
 

SHANGHAI, CN -- A study of construction professionals around the world has found that the majority expect more than 60 percent of their projects will be focused on green building within the next five years.

Environmentally friendly building currently accounts for more than 10 percent of domestic projects for almost a third of the respondents who participated in the study. It is the first to examine green building market trends and drivers on a global scale, according to McGraw-Hill Construction Analytics, which conducted the research and produced a report on the findings in partnership with the World Green Building Council.

The 50-page report, "Global Green Building Trends: Market Growth and Perspectives from Around the World," is based on a survey of early market adopters in 45 countries in seven regions: Europe, North America, South America, Australia and New Zealand, Asia, the Middle East and North Africa, and Sub-Saharan Africa.

The highlights of the report were presented at McGraw-Hill Construction’s 2008 Green Building and Energy Efficiency International Conference, September 19 and 20, at the Shanghai World Financial Center.

The bottom-line impact of eco-friendly building is expected to be strong, according to the study. It found that 86 percent of firms expect rapid or steady growth in sales and profits associated with green building.

Of the seven global regions, the fastest-growing green building market is Asia, where 73 percent of the firms are expected to be dedicated to green building by 2013 compared with the 36 percent that now do so, the study found.

The study also found that solar power is the most common form of renewable energy around the globe. Fifty-two percent of industry professionals reported using solar power today, and usage is expected to reach 76 percent in five years. The biggest growth spurt among renewables was projected for wind power: 20 percent reported using it today and a jump to 57 percent is expected by 2013. Use of geothermal power is expected to rise from a current 22 percent to 45 percent in five years.

Looking at drivers, the study found the top reason businesses around the world cited for green building is that it is "the right thing to do."  In Sub-Saharan Africa and the Middle East-North Africa, "supporting the domestic economy" was frequently cited. And firms in Asia and Europe said “environmental regulations” are a big motivator.

"Green building has truly become a global movement," said Harvey M. Bernstein, McGraw-Hill Construction’s vice president of Industry Analytics, Alliances and Strategic Initiatives.

"Firms around the world are awakening to the positive business, environmental and societal impacts of green building," Bernstein said in a statement announcing release of the report. "We are seeing widespread growth as green becomes increasingly visible throughout the global marketplace."

World Green Building Council Executive Director Andrew Bowerbank noted that buildings and infrastructure globally account for 40 percent of greenhouse gas emissions. “This is more than what the transportation or manufacturing sectors contribute,” said Bowerbank in a statement. "It is critical now that industry leaders recognize current environmental opportunities in the marketplace and begin to collaborate to demonstrate effective solutions."



Greenhouse gas emissions shock scientists
From Times Wire Services
September 26, 2008
Carbon dioxide output is rising rather than falling, despite efforts to curb it. 'It's scary,' one researcher says.
WASHINGTON -- The world pumped up emissions of the chief human-produced global warming gas last year, setting a course that could push beyond leading scientists' projected worst-case scenario, international researchers said Thursday.

The new numbers, which some scientists called "scary," were a surprise because experts thought an economic downturn would slow energy use. Instead, carbon dioxide output rose 3% from 2006 to 2007.

That amount exceeds the most dire outlook for emissions from burning coal and oil and related activities as projected by a Nobel Prize-winning group of international scientists in 2007.

Meanwhile, forests and oceans, which suck up carbon dioxide, are doing so at lower rates, scientists said. If those trends continue, the world will be on track for the highest predicted rises in temperature and sea level.

The U.N.'s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has warned that an increase of between 3.2 and 9.7 degrees Fahrenheit could trigger massive environmental changes, including melting of the Greenland ice sheet, the Himalayan-Tibetan glaciers and summer sea ice in the Arctic.

Corinne Le Quere, professor of environmental sciences at the University of East Anglia and the British Antarctic Survey, said the prediction that current emissions put the planet on track for a temperature rise of more than 11 degrees means the world could face a dangerous rise in sea level as well as other drastic changes.

Richard Moss, vice president and managing director for climate change at the World Wildlife Fund, said the new carbon figures and research showed that "we're already locked into more warming than we thought."

"We should be worried -- really worried," Moss told the Washington Post. "This is happening in the context of trying to reduce emissions."

The new data also shows that forests and oceans, which naturally take up much of the carbon dioxide humans emit, are having less impact. These "natural sinks" have absorbed 54% of carbon dioxide emissions released since 2000, a drop of 3 percentage points compared with the period between 1959 and 2000.

The pollution leader was China, followed by the United States, which past data show is the leader in emissions per person in carbon dioxide output. And although several developed countries slightly reduced output in 2007, the U.S. churned out more.

Still, it was large increases from China, India and other developing countries that spurred the growth of carbon dioxide pollution to a record high of 9.34 billion tons of carbon. Figures released by science agencies in the U.S., Great Britain and Australia show that China's added emissions accounted for more than half of the worldwide increase. China passed the U.S. as the No. 1 carbon dioxide polluter in 2006.

Emissions in the U.S. rose nearly 2% in 2007, after declining the previous year. The U.S. produced 1.75 billion tons of carbon.

"Things are happening very, very fast," Le Quere told the Associated Press. "It's scary."

Gregg Marland, a senior staff scientist at the U.S. Department of Energy's Oak Ridge National Laboratory in Tennessee, said he was surprised at the results because he thought world emissions would drop because of the economic downturn. That didn't happen.

"If we're going to do something [about reducing emissions], it's got to be different than what we're doing," he said.

The emissions are based on data from oil giant BP PLC, which show that China has become the major driver of world trends. China emitted 2 billion tons of carbon last year, up 7.5% from the previous year.

"We're shipping jobs offshore from the U.S., but we're also shipping carbon dioxide emissions with them," Marland said. "China is making fertilizer and cement and steel, and all of those are heavy energy-intensive industries."

Developing countries not asked to reduce greenhouse gases by the 1997 Kyoto treaty -- China and India are among them -- now account for 53% of carbon dioxide pollution. That group of nations surpassed industrialized ones in carbon dioxide emissions in 2005, an analysis of older figures shows.

India is in position to beat Russia for the No. 3 carbon dioxide polluter behind the U.S., Marland said. Indonesia's levels are increasing rapidly.

Denmark's emissions dropped 8%. The United Kingdom and Germany reduced carbon dioxide pollution by 3%, while France and Australia cut it by 2%.

But it remains unclear how much industrialized countries will be able to reduce their carbon output in the years to come, regardless of whether developing nations seek to restrain their greenhouse gas emissions. The federal government predicts U.S. fossil fuel consumption will increase. Japan, Canada and several other countries that committed to reducing their carbon emissions under the 1997 Kyoto Protocol have fallen far behind in meeting their targets.

Moreover, new scientific research suggests the globe is already destined for a greater worldwide temperature rise than predicted. Last month, two scientists from the Scripps Institution of Oceanography and UC San Diego published research showing that even if humans stopped generating greenhouse gases immediately, the world's average temperature would "most likely" increase by 4.3 degrees Fahrenheit by the end of this century.

Writing in the journal Proceedings of the National Academies of Science, they based their calculations on the fact that new air-quality measures worldwide are reducing the amount of fine particles, or aerosols, in the atmosphere and diminishing their cooling effect.

What is "kind of scary" is that the worldwide emissions growth is beyond the highest growth in fossil fuel predicted just two years ago by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, said Benjamin Santer, an atmospheric scientist at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory.

Under the panel's scenario then, temperatures would increase by somewhere between 4 and 11 degrees Fahrenheit by 2100.

If this trend continues for the century, we would be exceedingly lucky "for it just to be bad, as opposed to catastrophic," said Stanford University climate scientist Stephen H. Schneider.
 
Clean Energy 2030
Google's Proposal for reducing U.S. dependence on fossil fuels

Summary

Right now we have a real opportunity to transform our economy from one running on fossil fuels to one largely based on clean energy.  Technologies and know-how to accomplish this are either available today or are under development.  We can build whole new industries and create millions of new jobs. We can cut energy costs, both at the gas pump and at home.  We can improve our national security.  And we can put a big dent in climate change.  With strong leadership we could be moving forward on an aggressive but realistic time-line and an approach that offsets costs with real economic gains. 

The energy team at Google has been analyzing how we could greatly reduce fossil fuel use by 2030. 
Our proposal - "Clean Energy 2030" - provides a potential path to weaning the U.S. off of coal and oil for electricity generation by 2030 (with some remaining use of natural gas as well as nuclear), and cutting oil use for cars by 38%.  Al Gore has issued a challenge that is even more ambitious - getting us to carbon-free electricity even sooner - and we hope the American public pushes our leaders to embrace it. T. Boone Pickens has weighed in with an interesting plan of his own to massively deploy wind energy, among other things. Other plans have also been developed in recent years that merit attention.

Our goal in presenting this first iteration of the Clean Energy 2030 proposal is to stimulate debate and we invite you to take a look and comment - or offer an alternative approach if you disagree. With a new Administration and Congress - and multiple energy-related imperatives - this is an opportune, perhaps unprecedented, moment to move from plan to action.

We announced this proposal on October 1, 2008.  Google CEO Eric Schmidt's energy speech at the Commonwealth Club on October 1 is now available.


Summary: Reductions in Energy Use and Emissions

Our proposal will allow us to reduce from the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) current baseline for energy use:

  • Fossil fuel-based electricity generation by 88%
  • Vehicle oil consumption by 38%
  • Dependence on imported oil (currently 10 million barrels per day) by 33%
  • Electricity-sector CO2 emissions by 95%
  • Personal vehicle sector COemissions by 38%
  • US CO2 emissions overall by 48% (40% from today's CO2 emission level)

We can achieve these results in 2030 by:

  • Deploying aggressive end-use electrical energy efficiency measures to reduce demand 33%.
    • Baseline EIA demand is projected to increase 25% by 2030.  In addition, the increase in plug-in vehicles (see below) increases electricity demand another 8%. Thus, our efficiency reductions keep demand flat at the 2008 level.
  • Replacing all coal and oil electricity generation, and about half of that from natural gas, with renewable electricity:
    • 380 gigawatts (GW) wind: 300 GW onshore + 80 GW offshore
    • 250 GW solar: 170 GW photovoltaic (PV) + 80 GW concentrating solar power (CSP)        
    • 80 GW geothermal: 15 GW conventional + 65 GW enhanced geothermal systems (EGS)
  • Increasing plug-in vehicles (hybrids & pure electrics) to 90% of new car sales in 2030, reaching 42% of the total US fleet that year
  • Increasing new conventional vehicle fuel efficiency from 31 to 45 mpg in 2030
  • Accelerating the turnover of the vehicle fleet from 19 to 13 years (resulting in 25 million new vehicle sales per year in 2030, a 31% increase over the baseline)


Summary: Financial Bottom Line

The financial bottom line: Although the cost of the Clean Energy 2030 proposal is significant (about $4.4 trillion in undiscounted 2008 dollars), savings are even greater ($5.4 trillion), returning a net savings of $1.0 trillion over the 22-year life of the plan.

Summary: Actions Required

A number of actions will be required to realize the Clean Energy 2030 proposal:
  • Renewable electricity:
    • A long-term national commitment to renewable electricity (e.g. national renewable portfolio standard, carbon price, long-term tax credits and incentives, etc.)
    • Adequate transmission capacity (to support about 450 GW targeting mostly Great Plains and coasts for wind, and desert southwest for concentrating solar power)
    • Adequate grid resources to manage large-scale intermittent generation
    • Public and private renewable energy R&D and investment to achieve cost parity with fossil generation in next several years
  • Energy efficiency 
    • Long-term commitment to energy efficiency by the federal government and states (e.g, national efficiency standard, aggressive appliance standards and building codes, "decoupling" of utility profits from sales, incentives for energy efficiency investments)
    • Deployment of a "smart" electricity grid that empowers consumers and businesses to manage their electricity use more effectively 
  • Personal vehicles:
    • Public policies supporting the accelerated deployment of fuel-efficient vehicles, e.g. higher fuel efficiency standards for conventional vehicles, financial incentives to remove older vehicles from the fleet and encourage efficient (especially plug-in) vehicle purchases, special electricity rates for "smart charging", and greater R&D
    • Investment in infrastructure necessary to support massive deployment of plug-ins including charging stations and development of new power management hardware and software
All of the above will require a sufficient and well-trained work force and manufacturing capacity to meet projected growth.

Electricity Sector

Currently the US produces half of its electricity from coal, 20% each from natural gas and nuclear energy, with the remainder provided by hydro and other renewables. Very little oil is used to make electricity—only about 1.5%. Electricity generation produces about 2,400 million metric tons of CO2 per year (MMtCO2/yr), about 40% of total US emissions.

In Clean Energy 2030 we transform this sector by: 1) Keeping electricity demand FLAT at the 2008 level, rather than allowing it to grow 25% by 2030, and 2) Eliminating all coal and oil in electricity generation (and about half of natural gas) by 2030 and replacing that generation with renewable energy--primarily wind, solar and geothermal.

For energy efficiency, there is ample proof in several states and from research studies [1] that growth in electricity demand can be kept flat or even made to decline (nationally demand is otherwise projected to grow by about 1% per year). This can be done using a combination of strategies, including energy efficiency targets, appliance standards, building codes, R&D investment, financial incentives, "decoupling" of utility profits from sales, and voluntary programs.

Keeping demand flat would reduce fossil fuel-based generation by 30% in 2030. The question is how we would meet remaining electricity needs without fossil fuels. The “business-as-usual” scenario developed by the EIA has very modest growth projections for renewables: about the same hydropower capacity as today (7%), and an expansion from 2% to 7% for other renewables (mostly biomass). Under the EIA view most of our remaining electricity requirements would still be met by fossil fuels.

We propose something radically different. Onshore and offshore wind could grow from about 20 GW today to 380 GW, generating 29% of 2030 demand. Solar, both photovoltaic and concentrating solar power (CSP), could grow from about 1 GW today to 250 GW, generating 12% of demand. Geothermal, both conventional and enhanced geothermal systems (EGS; see below), could grow from 2.4 GW today to 80 GW, generating 15% of demand. Together with modest projected expansion of other non-fossil energy sources, including nuclear (115 GW), hydro (78 GW), and biomass and municipal waste (23 GW), about 90% of demand could be met.[2]

Such rapid build-ups of electric generating capacity are not without precedent in the US. Between 1998 and 2006, over 200 GW of natural gas capacity were added to the US grid, representing a 115% increase. At its peak in 2002, 60 GW of natural gas generating capacity (24%) was brought online in one year. A similar story exists for nuclear energy, where 100 GW were built in the 1970s and 1980s from essentially zero capacity, with peak growth of almost 10 GW/yr and year-on-year growth after 1969 in excess of 60%.

The remaining demand would be supplied by natural gas (250 GW), which is likely necessary for shoring up imbalances between generation and demand, particularly with large amounts of intermittent renewables on the grid. Some capacity would also be provided by hydro resources, while distributed demand management (scheduling of large devices such as washing machines, dryers and plug-in vehicles, and making loads such as air conditioning interruptible) and energy storage (both distributed and centralized) would help make optimal economic use of intermittent generation.

(Note that numbers in parentheses above denote maximum generation capacities in 2030. Average capacities, proportional to the annual amount of electricity generated in TWh/yr as shown in the figure, are smaller and vary with resource type. See footnote [2] for more information).

The projected increase in nuclear generation (about a 15% increase over today's capacity) is unchanged from the EIA's projection, which assumes about 20 GW of new capacity offset by 5 GW of retirements in 2030. We did not pursue a more aggressive expansion of nuclear because of our concerns over cost, waste disposal and proliferation risk. Going forward, however, we are keen to explore all types of cutting-edge renewable sources of electricity including, perhaps, clean nuclear technology.

Another technology that is conspicuously absent from our proposal is coal with CO2 capture and sequestration (CCS). This technology has the potential to allow coal to be burned with minimal greenhouse gas emissions (about 10% of conventional coal plants), but the technical and legal challenges of storing billions of tons of CO2 underground have yet to be solved. If these issues can be overcome at reasonable cost, CCS would be a welcomed additional low-carbon energy solution.

The US Department of Energy (DOE) just completed a study looking at deploying 300 GW of wind by 2030, and concluded that the wind resource was ample for the task, and the impact on manufacturing was measurable but not overwhelming. Solar photovoltaics have been growing very strongly in recent years, topping 50%, but this technology still has a very small market share because of its cost. Concentrating solar power may break through this cost barrier faster, and could deliver massive amounts of power.

Geothermal energy is perhaps the sleeping giant. Conventional hydrothermal resources have been quietly growing in recent years, with 4 GW in the pipeline and likely 15 GW developed by 2030. Last month we announced a significant initiative in enhanced geothermal energy systems (EGS). EGS, which has the potential to provide significant baseload power on a broad-scale basis, promises extremely rapid growth if key technologies can be proven in the next few years.

For wind and solar, where the lion's share of resources are located in the Great Plains and desert southwest - far from population centers - the biggest challenge is providing adequate transmission capacity to get the power to market. Extrapolating from the DOE study, about 20,000 miles of new transmission capacity would be required to support 380 GW of onshore wind and concentrating solar power generation in the Clean Energy 2030 proposal. About 200,000 miles of high-voltage transmission now exist in the US. By contrast, offshore wind is located close to cities on both coasts, solar PV is typically highly distributed near where electricity is consumed, and there are significant potential EGS resources from border to border and coast to coast.

In summary, if we achieve the above electricity targets in the Clean Energy 2030 proposal, it would eliminate 88% of fossil fuel use and reduce CO2 emissions by 95% relative to the 2030 baseline, or about 2,800 MMtCO2/yr.

Table 1. Electricity sector summary.


2007
2010
2020
2030
Wind-total
(offshore)
16 GW
(0 GW)
41 GW
(0.5 GW)
176 GW
(18 GW)
380 GW
(80 GW)
Solar-total
(CSP)
1.0 GW
(0.5 GW)
3.1 GW
(1.3 GW)
69 GW
(20 GW)
250 GW
(80 GW)
Geothermal-total (EGS)
2.9 GW
(0.0 GW)
7.2 GW
(0.1 GW)
32 GW
(20 GW)
80 GW
(65 GW)
Reduced demand from efficiency
0.0%
3.0%
18%
33%
Increased demand from plug-in vehicles
0.0%
0.0%
0.7%
8.0%
Fraction of CO2 saved
0.0%
8.0%
52%
95%


Personal Vehicle Sector

According to the Energy Information Administration, transportation-related energy use accounts for 70% of the 21 million barrels per day (mbd) of liquid fuels consumed in the US. By 2030, the sector will consume 17 mbd and emit 2,200 million metric tons of CO2 per year (MMtCO2/yr), about 1/3 of projected total US energy-related CO2 emissions.

Personal vehicles (also known as “light-duty” vehicles, e.g. cars, sport-utility vehicles, and light trucks), account for approximately 60% of transportation sector fuel consumption and CO2 emissions; the remainder comes primarily from freight trucks and airplanes, with appreciable contributions from other sources (buses, trains, ships, etc.). The Clean Energy 2030 proposal focuses on the personal vehicle subtotal, because we think this can be transformed by plug-in electric vehicles and higher efficiency conventional vehicles.

Although the average fuel efficiency of new conventional vehicles, currently 22 mpg, is projected to increase to 31 mpg by 2030,[3] plug-in vehicles can already achieve significantly higher fuel efficiency because they drive on electricity for a significant fraction of their yearly miles. A plug-in hybrid with a 40-mile electric range drives on electricity for about half of its yearly miles, so it consumes half the gasoline of its conventional cousin. And switching to an all-electric vehicle of course consumes no gasoline.

The Clean Energy 2030 plan rapidly ramps up sales of plug-in vehicles, starting with 100,000 in 2010 (annual US vehicle sales today are roughly 15 million), and increasing to 3.7 million annual vehicle sales in 2020 and 22 million in 2030. Seventy percent of these vehicles would be plug-in hybrids, with the remainder being all-electric vehicles.

In addition to rapidly deploying plug-in vehicles, the Clean Energy 2030 proposal assumes that conventional (e.g. non-plug-in) vehicle efficiency can increase as well. We have consulted with industry experts and determined that it is possible to push average conventional vehicle efficiency to 40-50 mpg in 2030, and assume 45 mpg in our proposal. In Europe, this average fuel efficiency target is mandated by 2012.

Finally, the average vehicle in the US operates for almost 20 years, meaning that many older, inefficient vehicles continue to consume large amounts of fuel with increasing maintenance cost. To accelerate both the adoption of plug-in vehicles as well as more efficient conventional vehicles, we propose a program to accelerate the retirement of older vehicles.  There are a number of mechanisms that might be considered such as "feebates" and consumer and manufacturer incentives for efficient vehicles. As will be seen below, the higher up-front cost of a more efficient vehicle is quickly made up by much lower fuel costs. The impact of such a program would be an increase in new vehicle sales, rising to 6.2 million additional vehicles (31%) in 2030.

These three strategies (more plug-in vehicles, higher efficiency conventional vehicles, and accelerated vehicle turnover) would together reduce oil consumption (and CO2 emissions) by 38% relative to the baseline, or 56 billion gallons per year.



Table 2. Personal vehicle sector summary.


2007
2010
2020
2030
Conventional new vehicle efficiency
21.6 mpg
23.9 mpg
34.5 mpg
45.0 mpg
Overall fleet efficiency
20.4 mpg
20.9 mpg
27.1 mpg
45.1 mpg
Plug-in fraction of fleet (annual sales)
0.0%
(0.0%)
0.0%
(0.6%)
4.4%
(18%)
42%
(90%)
Fraction of fuel or CO2
0.0%
0.7%
10%
38%


Economics

We made the following economic assumptions in calculating the cost of the Clean Energy 2030 proposal:

Efficiency:
  • Efficiency capital cost of 25 cents per kWh annual savings (one-time cost)
  • Savings from efficiency of 10 cents per kWh (average electricity price)
Renewable energy:
  • Renewable electricity capital costs:
    • Onshore wind: $2 per watt (W) falling to $1.5/W in 2030
    • Offshore wind: $2.5/W falling to $2/W in 2030
    • Solar PV: $6/W falling to $2/W in 2030
    • Solar CSP: $3.5/W falling to $2/W in 2030
    • Conventional geothermal: $3.5/W flat through 2030
    • Enhanced geothermal systems: $5/W falling to $3.5/W in 2030      
  • Intermittency cost of $20/MWh (applied to wind and solar)
  • Avoided fossil capital costs (for plants planned in baseline but not built in our proposal because of efficiency and renewables):
    • Coal: $2/W constant
    • Natural gas and oil: $1/W constant
  • Saved fossil fuel cost (that is not already counted as efficiency savings):
    • Coal: $2/MBtu constant
    • Natural gas and oil: $10/MBtu constant
  • No write-down cost for retiring coal plants (all plants assumed to be older than 40 years when retired), no decommissioning cost or salvage value for plants
  • Transmission infrastructure cost: $0.30/W for wind (including offshore) and solar CSP
Vehicles:
  • Plug-in vehicle premiums: $5000 per plug-in hybrid vehicle (PHEV), $10,000 per pure-electric vehicle (EV), plus $1000 per vehicle for charging infrastructure
  • Higher-efficiency conventional vehicle premium $3000 for 45 mpg (pro-rated for lower mpg, down to zero cost for 22 mpg today)
  • Fuel cost: $4/gallon gasoline today, doubling to $8/gallon by 2030
  • Plug-in electricity cost: 7 cents per kWh (discounted due to flexible smart-charging price)
  • Older vehicle buy-back cost: $5000 per vehicle
Carbon (not counted in net savings):
  • Carbon credit for CO2 not emitted (relative to baseline): $20/ton CO2, doubling to $40/ton in 2030 (applied to both electricity and vehicles)


Table 3. Economic summary (billions of 2008 US dollars).

Costs Undiscounted total Net present value*
Electrical efficiency investment $348 $175
Renewable capacity investment $1,642 $712
Transmission capacity investment $133 $59
Intermittency cost $329 $121
Coal plant write-down, decommissioning and salvage $0 $0
Plug-in vehicle premium $1,221 $374
Plug-in electricity cost $122 $35
Higher efficiency conventional vehicle premium $325 $146
Vehicle buyback cost $322 $119
Subtotal $4,442 $1,742
Savings

Electrical efficiency savings $1,599 $620
Avoided fossil fuel generation capacity savings $267 $117
Avoided fossil fuel savings $437 $162
Plug-in fuel savings $2,193 $626
Conventional fuel savings $939 $368
Subtotal $5,435 $1,893



Net savings $994 $151
Carbon credits $1,134 $397
Net savings with carbon credits $2,128 $548
* Discount rate of 7%/year used for net present value calculations.

Bottom line: undiscounted savings exceed costs by $994 billion over the 22 years of the scenario, or if carbon credits are included, $2,128 billion.

Economic variants:
  • Making gasoline significantly more or less expensive changes the cost of the scenario relative to the baseline, and here the change can have a sizable impact on net savings. If gasoline rises to $12/gallon in 2030 rather than $8, an additional $1,189 billion in undiscounted savings are realized. If gasoline remains constant at $4/gallon in 2030, an additional cost of $1,317 billion is incurred, changing the balance to a net cost of $323 billion. 

Jobs

Transforming our energy economy as laid out in this proposal will create large numbers of new jobs.  Here are a few studies on renewable energy job creation.  Please note that the amount of renewable energy generation in these studies is smaller than in our proposal, so job creation could be larger under Clean Energy 2030.

According to the US Department of Energy, an additional 293 GW of of wind in 2030 will provide 476,000 jobs in the US (equivalent in size to about 25 Googles):
  • 259,000 construction jobs each year
  • 217,000 permanent operations jobs
  • Broken down as:
    • 150,000 direct employees
    • 100,000 jobs in associated industries (e.g., accountants, lawyers, steel workers, and electrical manufacturing)
    • 220,000 jobs through economic expansion based on local spending

Navigant Consulting examined the impact of expanding solar generation to 28 GW (PV and CSP) in 2016, and found it would provide 440,000 jobs in the US:
  • 110,000 direct
  • 130,000 indirect (response as supplying industries increase output)
  • 200,000 induced (spending of households who benefit from the additional wages and business income they earn through all of the direct and indirect activity)       

The Geothermal Energy Association finds that manufacturing and construction jobs typically create 6.4 person-year jobs per MW of capacity, as well as 0.74 permanent full-time jobs per MW of capacity directly related to power plant operation and maintenance.

We don't yet have job estimates related to efficiency installations or the plug-in vehicle market, but we note that the 6.2 million/year increase in vehicle sales by 2030 would result in many new jobs in the vehicle manufacturing sector.

Carbon Dioxide Savings

The Clean Energy 2030 proposal only focuses on two sectors--electricity and personal vehicles--yet together, aggressive changes in these sectors can reduce overall US CO2 emissions by 48% in 2030 relative to the EIA baseline. Compared to today's emission level of 6,000 MMtCO2/yr (about 20% of global energy-related CO2 emissions; see Marland), the proposal would reduce CO2 emissions by 40%, about halfway to the 80% reduction target by 2050 called for by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.


More reductions would be possible if other sectors were pursued similarly aggressively. We have chosen to focus on the electricity and personal vehicle sectors because these are areas where we currently are working. There are additional areas for fossil fuel and CO2 savings that are important to recognize, and may be added to our proposal in the future:

  • Transport:
    • Reduced vehicle usage (mass transit, carpooling, telecommuting, etc.)
    • Low-carbon biofuels for transportation
    • Improved efficiency in freight trucks and airplanes
  • Buildings and industry:
    • Improved efficiency of heating fuel use
    • Use of low-carbon biofuels or hydrogen as a heating fuel
    • Shift away from fuels and toward electricity (including use of combined heat and power systems)
    • Management of non-CO2 greenhouse gases including methane and halocarbon gases        
  • Agriculture and forestry:
    • Forest and grassland management
    • Methane management from animals and landfills

Acknowledgments

Authored by Jeffery Greenblatt, Ph.D., Climate and Energy Technology Manager, Google.org

We are indebted to many contributors from both inside and outside Google. These people include: Adhi Kesarla, Alec Brooks, Alec Proudfoot, Bill Weihl, Charles Baron, Chris Busselle, David Bercovich, Dan Reicher, Greg Miller, Jacquelline Fuller, Jay Boren, John Fitch, Kevin Chen, Luis Arbulu, Megan Smith, Michael Terrell, Micheal Lopez, Rick Needham, Rolf Schreiber, Ross Koningstein, and Wilson Tsai. Outside experts include Mark Mehos, Maureen Hand and Nate Blair of the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, John "Skip" Laitner and Steve Nadel of the American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy, and Luke Tonachel, Nathanael Greene, Rick Duke and Roland Hwang of the Natural Resources Defense Council.


Sources and Further Reading


Renewable Energy and Efficiency:
Vehicles:
Carbon and General:
  • Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, IPCC Special Report on Carbon Dioxide Capture and Storage. Prepared by Working Group III of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Metz, B., O. Davidson, H. C. de Coninck, M. Loos, and L. A. Meyer (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 442 pp., 2005:
    http://arch.rivm.nl/env/int/ipcc/pages_media/SRCCS-final/SRCCS_WholeReport.pdf.
  • Marland, G., T. Boden, and R. J. Andres, Global, Regional, and National Annual CO2 Emissions from Fossil-Fuel Burning, Cement Production, and Gas Flaring: 1751-2005, Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center Environmental Sciences Division, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, 2008: http://cdiac.ornl.gov/ftp/ndp030/global.1751_2005.ems.
  • Pacala, S. and R. Socolow, Stabilization Wedges: Solving the Climate Problem for the Next 50 Years with Current Technologies, Science, 305, 968, 2004: http://www.princeton.edu/wedges/articles/ (other "wedges" articles also available via this link).

References

  1. See also a study by McKinsey & Company.
    http://www.mckinsey.com/clientservice/ccsi/pdf/US_ghg_final_report.pdf
  2. Electricity generation technologies do not all generate the same amount of electricity over a year. The ratio of average output to maximum output is known as the "capacity factor," and is around 20% for solar photovoltaics, 30% for concentrating solar, 35-40% for wind, 50% for hydroelectric, and 90% for geothermal, biomass, nuclear and coal. Natural gas, which is mostly used for "ramping" purposes (increasing or decreasing output quickly according to changing demand) can run up to 90% but is typically operated around 20%. Thus, 100 GW of geothermal (with 90% capacity factor) produces the same amount of electricity in a year as 300 GW of solar (with 30% capacity factor).
  3. The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) fuel efficiency estimates tend to be inflated by about 20%. This is because such estimates are done under ideal, rather than real-world, conditions. Therefore, although the current CAFE standard mandates that fleet average new vehicles must achieve 35 mpg in 2020 and beyond, the actual fuel efficiency is projected by EIA is lower.

http://knol.google.com/k/jeffery-greenblatt/clean-energy-2030/15x31uzlqeo5n/1?locale=en#view
Sustainability Purchasing
GLOBE-Net - September 26, 2008
Offshoring
The Wal-Mart effect
Corporate Responsibility
These are some of the drivers behind the trend line towards more green and sustainable purchasing.
More and more organizations are adopting Corporate Responsibility (CR) commitments to integrate environmental, ethical, and social factors in their business strategies, operations, products and services, and in how they relate to their suppliers.


The Sustainability Purchasing Network in British Columbia recently published a study on trends and drivers of sustainability purchasing, noting the tendency for firms to adopt sustainable purchasing policies on the heels of adopting sustainability commitments.


The study also identified the ripple effect of large purchasers like Wal-Mart, which uses its marketplace influence to persuade its 60,000 suppliers to use less energy and reduce product packaging. Another trend raising the ire of activists concerned about sweatshop conditions overseas is offshoring, which arises from the globalization of the supply chain.


In theirGuide to the Business Case and Benefits of Sustainability Purchasing the Sustainability Purchasing Network compiled a number of financial and management benefits to organizations that adopt sustainable purchasing practices. The financial and management benefits include:


  • Cost reductions in material and utility expenditures, waste disposal, health and safety costs, and legal and insurance costs;
  • Attracts customers and helps meet their expectations for sustainably produced goods;
  • Simplifies compliance with environmental, health and safety regulations, and reporting;
  • Improves access to capital;
  • Helps suppliers better understand purchaser needs and promotes product innovation; and
  • Helps attract and retain talent and improve employee productivity.

Integrating social and ethical criteria into the purchasing decision can generate benefits such as better wage levels, working conditions, human rights, and health and safety. It can also support vulnerable groups and provide community services, promote a strong local economy and economic opportunity for indigenous people, and improve conditions in the developing world.


It’s not just companies that are following this approach. Vancouver’s Organizing Committee for the 2010 Olympic and Paralympic Winter Games (VANOC) has adopted a program they call "Buy Smart," which includes goals to:


  • Increase their social, ethical, and environmental performance;
  • Support the growth of Aboriginal and minority-owned businesses and the sustainable enterprise sector;
  • Increase jobs for socially and economically disadvantaged groups;
  • Build higher performance venues and operations to support an excellent Games;
  • Support the local and provincial economy;
  • Increase sustainability purchasing leading to innovation, trade, and investment in the sustainability sector; and
  • Create a best practice model for sustainable purchasing.

Lest one think the fascination with sustainable purchasing is going away any time soon, a recent TerraChoice report, EcoMarkets 2008 Summary Report, says otherwise. They surveyed over $78 billion of purchasing power in Canada and the U.S. and found that 68% of North American organizations increased their green purchasing in the past 12 months. They also note 91% of purchasers believe they will become more active green purchasers over the next two years.


More retailers are jumping on the bandwagon of ethical sourcing. An AT Kearney 2007 report revealed that over half of U.S. Fortune 100 corporations are addressing the social aspects of their supply chains, with 54% tracing metrics on supplier labour practices and 32% tracking metrics on supplier wages.


Most purchasers find the real value of sustainability purchasing lies in supplier engagement. Purchaser-supplier collaborations are a gold mine of product and service innovation, improved social and environmental conditions, and long-term economic benefits for both parties.


Firms that overlook the strategic opportunity of engaging their suppliers in their quest to serve new markets, satisfy growing government regulations, manage diminishing resources, and build their corporate reputations are missing a key business opportunity.


By Coro Strandberg
Coro Strandberg is an Advisor with the Sustainability Purchasing Network (http://www.buysmartbc.com/)


Contact Info: Coro Strandberg


Website : GLOBE-Net

Meridian profit hit by drought
By JAMES WEIR - The Dominion Post | Friday, 03 October 2008

State-owned power giant Meridian Energy took a $112 million knock to profits because of a "perfect storm" of events, including severe drought, and at times relied on North Island gas-fired power for much more than half its energy.

Combined, the state power companies made a $446 million profit, down $115 million mainly because of Meridian's tough year in the face of the second lowest hydro lake levels since 1931.

Meridian made $128.6 million after tax, down from $241 million last year.

Despite the profit slump, Meridian had already decided early this year to pay the Crown a $235.9 million dividend, which it was able to do because of its low debt levels and assets worth $6.6 billion.

Last month, Meridian increased retail power prices about 6 per cent, but it would not comment on the potential for power price rises next year.

This week, Contact Energy raised power prices 10 per cent to 12 per cent.

Nationally, power prices have risen by about 55 per cent since 1999, when Labour was elected to office.

Meridian chief executive Tim Lusk said winter had been hard for the company to manage because of the prolonged drought.

The company suffered the "perfect storm", with low lake levels in both islands, the unexpected shutdown of Contact Energy's New Plymouth power station and the sudden closure of part of the Cook Strait power cable, which will not be fixed till 2012.

Meridian's profits were hammered because it had to buy high-priced power from gas-fired power stations in the North Island to sell to its own contracted customers.

Wholesale power prices skyrocketed to $356 a megawatt hour in the final quarter of the financial year - more than five times the prices a year before.

Hydro stations provided well under half of Meridian customers' needs, even though the biggest customer, the Bluff aluminium smelter cut production and power demand by 10 per cent.

The smelter is now back to near full production after recent rain in the South Island.

Meanwhile, fellow state energy firm, Mighty River Power posted a $111 million annual profit, up from $96.9 million last year.

Chairwoman Carole Durbin said Mighty River regarded geothermal as its No1 development priority.

The company had made good progress on several fronts, notably the completion of the 100MW Kawerau geothermal power station, he said.

The Waikato drought, which reduced hydro volumes by 9 per cent, required running the Southdown gas-fired co-generation plant to cover the shortfall, with increased wholesale electricity prices not fully offsetting higher gas purchase costs.

Mighty River's retail arm, Mercury Energy, continued to perform well, she said.

Genesis Energy increased its profit to $99.1 million in the year ended June 30 from a restated $89.5 million last year as it generated more power.

National grid company Transpower made an after-tax profit of $108 million, down from $134 million the previous year.

To Save Energy, Cities Darken Street Lights
By Kate Galbraith

High energy prices and tight budgets may be bad news for street lights.

Endangered species? (Photo: John Marshall Mantel for The New York Times)

From Belmont, Mass., (see this article from The Boston Globe) to the tiny but trendy town of Marfa, Tex., (News West 9) a number of municipalities have turned off, or are considering turning off, their street lights to save money.

Even Fairbanks, Alaska, has discussed turning out the lights, to the chagrin of local police. According to an article this summer in The Fairbanks Daily News-Miner, a whopping 60 percent or more of the city’s electricity bill comes from street lights.

(Seems staggering, but it is dark half the year.)

The London Times reported last week that the city council of Powys, Wales, had decided to darken 64 percent of its lamps. “I know that elderly people are particularly concerned,” a local official was quoted as saying.

And in Santa Rosa, Calif., an Adopt-A-Light program gives residents the opportunity to turn darkened street lights back on — they just have to pay $150 a year for each light.

The rationale from the Adopt-a-Light program guide:

The City of Santa Rosa has 14,500 street lights and 200 traffic signals. Each year, it costs $1.5 million to provide energy to these lights. Revenue shortfalls in the city’s general fund are expected to be in the range of $2.5 million. As part of a citywide program to reduce expenditures, a number of midblock street lights on selected collector and arterial streets have been turned off. At current energy rates, the city anticipates that this program will reduce its energy bill by $150,000 annually.

The $150 payment is submitted to the Public Works Department. “Include the pole number on the check,” the program further advises. “Allow two weeks for the light to be energized.”

To be sure, there are alternatives that keep street lights on and cut the bill. Many cities, like St. Paul, are considering switching to more efficient light-emitting diodes to keep their streets lighted. Last month at our sibling blog, Bits, Eric Taub reported on a small pilot program in New York City, aimed at testing L.E.D.’s here. And Santa Rosa has switched to L.E.D. technology in all street lights at intersections — which are not subject to the Adopt-a-Light program.

Taking a different approach, the mayor of Ann Arbor, Mich., is considering using motion sensors on street lights, which will darken the lamps if no activity is detected on the street.

Also worth noting: a smarter grid — in which electricity prices are based on time of day — might make the issue moot. Street lights are obviously creatures of the night, and nighttime is when demand for electricity, and thus the cost of generation, is lowest.

Somali Pirates Tell Their Side: They Want Only Money
By JEFFREY GETTLEMAN
Published: September 30, 2008
By CLAIRE TRAGESER
P-I REPORTER

Somali pirates in small boats hijacked the arms-laden Ukrainian freighter Faina on Thursday.

“We just saw a big ship,” the pirates’ spokesman, Sugule Ali, said in a telephone interview. “So we stopped it.”

The pirates quickly learned, though, that their booty was an estimated $30 million worth of heavy weaponry, heading for Kenya or Sudan, depending on whom you ask.

In a 45-minute interview, Mr. Sugule spoke on everything from what the pirates wanted (“just money”) to why they were doing this (“to stop illegal fishing and dumping in our waters”) to what they had to eat on board (rice, meat, bread, spaghetti, “you know, normal human-being food”).

He said that so far, in the eyes of the world, the pirates had been misunderstood. “We don’t consider ourselves sea bandits,” he said. “We consider sea bandits those who illegally fish in our seas and dump waste in our seas and carry weapons in our seas. We are simply patrolling our seas. Think of us like a coast guard.”

The pirates who answered the phone call on Tuesday morning said they were speaking by satellite phone from the bridge of the Faina, the Ukrainian cargo ship that was hijacked about 200 miles off the coast of Somalia on Thursday. Several pirates talked but said that only Mr. Sugule was authorized to be quoted. Mr. Sugule acknowledged that they were now surrounded by American warships, but he did not sound afraid. “You only die once,” Mr. Sugule said.

He said that all was peaceful on the ship, despite unconfirmed reports from maritime organizations in Kenya that three pirates were killed in a shootout among themselves on Sunday or Monday night.

He insisted that the pirates were not interested in the weapons and had no plans to sell them to Islamist insurgents battling Somalia’s weak transitional government. “Somalia has suffered from many years of destruction because of all these weapons,” he said. “We don’t want that suffering and chaos to continue. We are not going to offload the weapons. We just want the money.”

He said the pirates were asking for $20 million in cash; “we don’t use any other system than cash.” But he added that they were willing to bargain. “That’s deal-making,” he explained.

Piracy in Somalia is a highly organized, lucrative, ransom-driven business. Just this year, pirates hijacked more than 25 ships, and in many cases, they were paid million-dollar ransoms to release them. The juicy payoffs have attracted gunmen from across Somalia, and the pirates are thought to number in the thousands.

The piracy industry started about 10 to 15 years ago, Somali officials said, as a response to illegal fishing. Somalia’s central government imploded in 1991, casting the country into chaos. With no patrols along the shoreline, Somalia’s tuna-rich waters were soon plundered by commercial fishing fleets from around the world. Somali fishermen armed themselves and turned into vigilantes by confronting illegal fishing boats and demanding that they pay a tax.

“From there, they got greedy,” said Mohamed Osman Aden, a Somali diplomat in Kenya. “They starting attacking everyone.”

By the early 2000s, many of the fishermen had traded in their nets for machine guns and were hijacking any vessel they could catch: sailboat, oil tanker, United Nations-chartered food ship.

“It’s true that the pirates started to defend the fishing business,” Mr. Mohamed said. “And illegal fishing is a real problem for us. But this does not justify these boys to now act like guardians. They are criminals. The world must help us crack down on them.”

The United States and several European countries, in particular France, have been talking about ways to patrol the waters together. The United Nations is even considering something like a maritime peacekeeping force. Because of all the hijackings, the waters off Somalia’s coast are considered the most dangerous shipping lanes in the world.

On Tuesday, several American warships — around five, according to one Western diplomat — had the hijacked freighter cornered along the craggy Somali coastline. The American ships allowed the pirates to bring food and water on board, but not to take weapons off. A Russian frigate is also on its way to the area.

Lt. Nathan Christensen, a Navy spokesman, said on Tuesday that he had heard the unconfirmed reports about the pirate-on-pirate shootout, but that the Navy had no more information. “To be honest, we’re not seeing a whole lot of activity” on the ship, he said.

In Washington, Geoff Morrell, the Pentagon press secretary, declined to discuss any possible American military operations to capture the ship.

“Our concern is right now making sure that there’s a peaceful resolution to this, that this cargo does not end up in the hands of anyone who would use it in a way that would be destabilizing to the region,” Mr. Morrell told reporters at the Pentagon. He said the United States government was not involved in any negotiations with the pirates. He also said he had no information about reports that the pirates had exchanged gunfire among themselves.

Kenyan officials continued to maintain that the weapons aboard were part of a legitimate arms deal for the Kenyan military, even though several Western diplomats, Somali officials and the pirates themselves said the arms were part of a secret deal to funnel weapons to southern Sudan.

Somali officials are urging the Western navies to storm the ship and arrest the pirates because they say that paying ransoms only fuels the problem. Western diplomats, however, have said that such a commando operation would be very difficult because the ship is full of explosives and the pirates could use the 20 crew members as human shields.

Mr. Sugule said his men were treating the crew members well. (The pirates would not let the crew members speak on the phone, saying it was against their rules.) “Killing is not in our plans,” he said. “We only want money so we can protect ourselves from hunger.”

When asked why the pirates needed $20 million to protect themselves from hunger, Mr. Sugule laughed and said, “Because we have a lot of men.”

Mohammed Ibrahim contributed reporting from Mogadishu, Somalia, and Eric Schmitt from Washington.

Ross Garnaut resolute on targets
Olga Galacho
October 01, 2008 12:00am
ECONOMIST Ross Garnaut has continued to urge decisive action on climate change in his final report, despite acknowledging global financial markets were in turmoil.

However, the business sector said it expected economic modelling from federal Treasury on emissions trading, due later this month, would take greater account of the present turmoil.

In a 700-page document, Professor Garnaut yesterday reiterated his earlier advice to the Federal Government that it introduce carbon trading in early 2010 and preferably with targets to reduce emissions by 25 per cent of 2000 levels by 2020, if an international accord is struck.

If a global deal cannot be brokered with big polluting countries such as China and India, Prof Garnaut said Australia should aim for a 10 per cent reduction of 2000 levels by 2020.

Business groups were quick to label the Garnaut Review as too optimistic in the context of current financial volatility.

The Australian Chamber of Commerce and Industry cautioned that "only a measured approach, tailored to international development and with appropriate compensation arrangements, would be in the national interest" under present instability.

"Against this backdrop, the results of Treasury modelling is more important than ever," ACCI said.

But with the financial crisis accelerating around the world, doubts are beginning to surface over whether the much-delayed economic report will be released this month.

Cement Industry Association chief Robyn Bain forecast that Treasury's paper, so crucial to the design of an emissions scheme, would be released as late as December.

"They are going to have to watch what impact China will feel from the Wall St fallout before they can assess the likely effect on Australian sectors of carbon reduction policy," Ms Bain said.

"I wouldn't be surprised if we get the modelling on Christmas Eve.

"It's more important given what happened in the US yesterday that the government get its scheme absolutely right."

She said that if there had been room for error, it disappeared a few weeks ago.

Australian Industry Group chief Heather Ridout said Prof Garnaut's proposed emissions cuts would be difficult to meet in the absence of commitments from all countries.

"What is happening in global markets today reinforces the importance of a gentle start to emissions trading with a low carbon price and realistic pollution reductions," Ms Ridout said.

"People can be heroic about climate change, but heroism can sometimes border on the reckless."

Prof Garnaut also called for Australia to lead and fund the development of carbon capture and storage technologies in order to allow coal to continue being used by power generators.

But wind energy company Pacific

Hydro hit out at the report saying it did not do enough to encourage the expansion of the renewable energy sector.

"Where we disagree with the review is in the role of the renewable energy target in developing our industry over the next 10 years so it is at a point where it can compete effectively with existing fossil fuel power generators," PacHydro chief Rob Grant said.

Australian emissions still rising rapidly
Marian Wilkinson and Ben Cubby
September 26, 2008

IN A serious setback to the Rudd Government's stated ambition to become a world leader on climate change, new global figures show Australia's greenhouse gas emissions from burning fossil fuel are continuing to rise rapidly in stark contrast to other developed countries.

"Australia's position remains unique as a developed country," said Dr Michael Raupach, a CSIRO scientist and co-chair of the Global Carbon Project which released the figures yesterday. "Since 2000 Australian fossil-fuel emissions have grown by 2 per cent per year".

This rapid rise will make it difficult for Australia to cut its emissions by 2020, even by the modest amount of 10 per cent recommended by Professor Ross Garnaut, the Government's climate change adviser.

Scientists expressed alarm at the figures, which also show global greenhouse gas emissions from burning fossil fuels have soared since 2000, largely because of economic growth in developing countries. Emissions have grown four times faster than the previous decade, exceeding the worst-case scenarios of the UN's peak scientific body, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

India is poised to become the third biggest emitter of carbon dioxide, taking the place of Russia. The top three emitters of carbon dioxide will soon be China, the US and India.

The new emissions figures put together by scientists from Australia, the US, France and Britain reveal that humans generated 10 billion tonnes of carbon in 2007 from the use of fuels like coal and oil, from making cement and from massive deforestation. This put the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere at 383 parts per million, around 37 per cent above the levels at the start of the industrial revolution and the highest level for at least 650,000 years.

"This new update of the carbon budget shows the acceleration of both carbon dioxide emissions and atmospheric accumulation are unprecedented and most astonishing during a decade of intense international developments to address climate change," Dr Pep Canadell, another member of the project, said.

The figures only measure carbon dioxide emissions. When other gases like methane are added, the concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere are around 410 parts per million, according to CSIRO scientist Dr Paul Fraser. The most recent UN scientific reports find that if the concentrations go over 450 parts per million, the world risks increasing average temperatures more than 2.5 degrees, which could cause mass extinctions of species.

Dr Barry Brook, director of the Research Institute for Climate Change and Sustainability, said the latest figures for atmospheric carbon were ominous. "If you look at current government policy, then it doesn't add up anyway, even before these figures," he said."Cutting our emissions by 60 per cent by 2050 won't do it, because we are already such high emitters per capita. It has to be more like 90 per cent.".

Addressing a climate change meeting in New York, Mr Rudd warned the introduction of an emissions scheme in Australia and globally was vexed enough without expecting nervous economies to bear further expense by putting a price on carbon. "It is an even greater difficulty at a time when the global economy is under great global financial stress."

with Phillip Coorey

World's first climate change super fund initiative
hursday, 25 September 2008


The world’s most comprehensive initiative designed to assist super funds manage the risks and maximise the opportunities associated with climate change was launched today at Parliament House by Federal Minister for Superannuation, the Hon. Senator Nick Sherry.

Called the Australian Asset Owners Climate Change Initiative, it is the product of a unique partnership between The Climate Institute and the Australian Institute of Superannuation Trustees (AIST).

“This initiative is designed to assist Australian superannuation and pension funds adopt best practice and to lead international competitors in managing the risks and maximising the opportunities in the response to the challenge of climate change,” Climate Institute CEO John Connor said.

The initiative consists of a survey of 80 of Australia’s largest superannuation funds, each with more than one billion dollars under management, backed by best practice guidelines both of which will be updated annually.

“The survey and best practice guidelines will assist asset owners, who collectively manage more than a trillion dollars of investor capital - equivalent to Australia’s annual GDP, to better manage the material impacts of climate change and the consequences of government policy,” Mr Connor said.

“In order to look after the long-term interests of members, funds will be encouraged to invest in and/or ensure companies have strategies in place to manage climate risks, and to take advantage of emerging clean technology and carbon permit markets.”

AIST Chair, Ian Robertson, said super funds had a fiduciary obligation to address long-term risks for their beneficiaries, and climate change would have to be the greatest long term risk of all.

“Climate change is an issue that everyone thinks someone else should do something about. As asset owners of more than one trillion dollars, super fund boards are ideally placed to do something constructive and poorly placed to avoid that responsibility,” Mr Robertson said.

AIST’s partnership with The Climate Institute on this unique initiative would build on other AIST research projects such as recent work examining the carbon footprint of superannuation funds, Mr Robertson said.

Ecuador grants rights to nature - September 29, 2008
Posted on behalf of Amber Dance

They didn’t cast a single vote, but Ecuador’s monkeys, tortoises (pictured) and orchids just acquired constitutional rights, along with the rest of the nation’s nature. tortoise.jpg


On Sunday, Ecuador’s human citizens voted their approval of a new constitution; reports vary but approximately two-thirds of people voted yes (New York Times). The document included language making Ecuador the first nation to legislate rights for nature:

“Nature or Pachamama [the Andean earth goddess], where life is reproduced and exists, has the right to exist, persist, maintain and regenerate its vital cycles, structure, functions and its processes in evolution. Every person, people, community or nationality, will be able to demand the recognition of rights for nature before the public bodies.”

The section was written in cooperation with the Community Environmental Legal Defense Fund, based in Chambersburg, Pennsylvania, which has helped individual communities legislate similar rights for nature. In June, Spain’s legislature supported rights for great apes (Great Beyond), but the Ecuador constitution appears to go much further.

“With this vote, the people of Ecuador are leading the way for countries around the world to fundamentally change how we protect nature,” Mari Margil, associate director of the Fund, said in a press release. Actually, probably a lot of them were more concerned about the parts of the constitution that are meant to help the poor, by providing free education, giving homemakers social security, and providing building materials for first-time homeowners (Guardian). The nature section has been locally “derided,” according to Dot Earth. Despite the popular support, the Latin Business Chronicle suggests the new constitution will just increase president Rafael Correa’s control and increase problems for foreign investors.

Ecuador’s natural bounty includes Amazon jungle with more than 300 tree species per hectare, parrots, jaguars and butterflies. The mountain cloud forest hosts orchids, hummingbirds, toucans and spectacled bears. The nation also includes the Galapagos islands, host to unique tortoises, iguanas, and birds.

Image: Paul Guther, US Fish and Wildlife Service

Experts find 'chemical equator' dividing globe
30-mile wide atmospheric line divides polluted north and cleaner south

This chart shows a 'chemical equator' just north of Australia. Red represents high levels of carbon monoxide on Jan. 30, 2006. Blue reflects clean air.

MSNBC staff and news service reports updated
11:50 a.m. ET
Sept. 23, 2008

Scientists have discovered a "chemical equator" that divides the polluted air of the Northern Hemisphere from the largely uncontaminated atmosphere of the Southern Hemisphere.

Researchers found evidence for an atmospheric chemical line about 30 miles wide in cloudless skies in the Western Pacific, with levels of carbon monoxide four times higher on the northern side.

The discovery will provide clues to help scientists model simulations of the movement of pollutants in the atmosphere more accurately, and to assess the impact of pollution on climate, the researchers said in a statement on Tuesday.

Previously, scientists believed that a cloudy Pacific region where the trade winds meet formed the boundary between the polluted air of the Northern Hemisphere and the clearer air of the Southern Hemisphere.

"The shallow waters of the Western Pacific, known as the Tropical Warm Pool, have some of highest sea surface temperatures in the world, which result in the region's weather being dominated by storm systems," noted Jacqueline Hamilton, a University of York researcher and lead author of a report to be published in the Journal of Geophysical Research — Atmospheres, a publication of the American Geophysical Union.

"The position of the chemical equator was to the south of this stormy region," she said, adding that "powerful storms may act as pumps, lifting highly polluted air from the surface to high in the atmosphere where pollutants will remain longer and may have a global influence."

The scientists discovered evidence of the chemical equator using sensors on a specially equipped airplane during flights north of Darwin, Australia.

Reuters contributed to this report.
Quote of the week
All power corrupts, but we need the electricity.
ANON

Power From the Restless Sea Stirs the Imagination
By KATE GALBRAITH
Published: September 22, 2008

For years, technological visionaries have painted a seductive vision of using ocean tides and waves to produce power. They foresee large installations off the coast and in tidal estuaries that could provide as much as 10 percent of the nation’s electricity.

But the technical difficulties of making such systems work are proving formidable. Last year, a wave-power machine sank off the Oregon coast. Blades have broken off experimental tidal turbines in New York’s turbulent East River. Problems with offshore moorings have slowed the deployment of snakelike generating machines in the ocean off Portugal.

Verdant Power tidal turbines being installed in the East River

Years of such problems have discouraged ocean-power visionaries, but have not stopped them. Lately, spurred by rising costs for electricity and for the coal and other fossil fuels used to produce it, they are making a new push to overcome the barriers blocking this type of renewable energy.

The Scottish company Pelamis Wave Power plans to turn on a small wave-energy farm — the world’s first — off the coast of Portugal by year’s end, after fixing the broken moorings. Finavera Renewables, a Canadian company that recently salvaged its sunken, $2.5 million Oregon wave-power machine, has signed an agreement with Pacific Gas & Electric to produce power off the California coast by 2012. And in the East River, just off Manhattan, two newly placed turbines with tougher blades and rotors are feeding electricity into a grocery store and parking garage on Roosevelt Island.

“It’s frustrating sometimes as an ocean energy company to say, yeah, your device sank,” said Jason Bak, chief executive of Finavera. “But that is technology development.”

Roughly 100 small companies around the world are working on converting the sea’s power to electricity. Many operate in Europe, where governments have pumped money into the industry. Companies and governments alike are betting that over time, costs will come down. Right now, however, little electricity is being generated from the ocean except at scattered test sites around the world.

The East River — despite its name, it is really a tidal strait with powerful currents — is the site of the most advanced test project in the United States.

Verdant Power, the company that operates it, was forced to spend several years and millions of dollars mired in a slow permit process, even before its turbine blades broke off in the currents. The company believes it is getting a handle on the problems. Verdant is trying to perfect its turbines and then install 30 of them in the East River, starting no later than spring 2010, and to develop other sites in Canada and on the West Coast.

Plenty of other start-ups also plan commercial ocean-power plants, at offshore sites such as Portugal, Oregon and Wales, but none have been built.

Ocean-power technology splits into two broad categories, tidal and wave power. Wave power, of the sort Finavera is pursuing, entails using the up and down motions of the waves to generate electricity. Tidal power — Verdant’s province — involves harnessing the action of the tides with underwater turbines, which twirl like wind machines.

A prototype of Finavera’s wave energy machine being assembled in 2007 to be tested off the coast of Oregon.

(Decades-old tidal technologies in France and Canada use barrage systems that trap water at high tide; they are far larger and more obtrusive than the new, below-waterline technologies.)

A third type of power, called ocean thermal, aims to exploit temperature differences between the surface and deep ocean, mainly applicable in the tropics.

Ocean power has more potential than wind power because water is about 850 times denser than air, and therefore packs far more energy. The ocean’s waves, tides and currents are also more predictable than the wind.

The drawback is that seawater can batter and corrode machinery, and costly undersea cables may be needed to bring the power to shore. And the machines are expensive to build: Pelamis has had to raise the equivalent of $77 million.

Many solar start-ups, by contrast, need as little as $5 million to build a prototype, said Martin Lagod, co-founder of Firelake Capital Management, a Silicon Valley investment firm. Mr. Lagod looked at investing in ocean power a few years ago and decided against it because of the long time horizons and large capital requirements.

General Electric, which builds wind turbines, solar panels and other equipment for virtually every other type of energy, has stayed clear of ocean energy. “At this time, these sources do not appear to be competitive with more scalable alternatives like wind and solar,” said Daniel Nelson, a G.E. spokesman, in an e-mail message. (An arm of G.E. has made a small investment in Pelamis.)

Worldwide, venture capital going to ocean-power companies has risen from $8 million in 2005 to $82 million last year, according to the Cleantech Group, a research firm. However, that is a tiny fraction of the money pouring into solar energy and biofuels.

This month the Energy Department doled out its first major Congressionally-funded grants since 1992 to ocean-power companies, including Verdant and Lockheed Martin, which is studying ocean thermal approaches.

Assuming that commercial ocean-power farms are eventually built, the power is likely to be costly, especially in the near term. A recent study commissioned by the San Francisco Public Utility Commission put the cost of harnessing the Golden Gate’s tides at 85 cents to $1.40 a kilowatt-hour, or roughly 10 times the cost of wind power. San Francisco plans to forge ahead regardless.

Other hurdles abound, including sticky environmental and aesthetic questions. In Oregon, crabbers worry that the wave farm proposed by Ocean Power Technologies, a New Jersey company, would interfere with their prime crabbing grounds.

“It’s right where every year we deploy 115,000 to 120,000 crab pots off the coast for an eight-month period to harvest crab,” said Nick Furman, executive director of the Oregon Dungeness Crab Commission. The commission wants to support renewable energy, but “we’re kind of struggling with that,” Mr. Furman said

George Taylor, chief executive of Ocean Power Technologies, said he did not expect “there will be a problem with the crabs.”

In Washington State, where a utility is studying the possibility of installing tidal power at the Admiralty Inlet entrance to Puget Sound, scuba divers are worried, even as they recognize the need for clean power.

Said Mike Racine, president of the Washington Scuba Alliance: “We don’t want to be dodging turbine blades, right?”

 
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