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Welcome to the two weekly review of energy and environmental events and developments from both here in New Zealand and on an international basis. As always we hope you find our collection of stories to be of interest in what continues to be a high growth sector.

The Irish are known for luck and for Guinness, however they don’t seem to be relying on four leaf clovers to maintain energy supply. The approach taken is to use “three leafed” wind turbines in conjunction with Vanadium Redox Batteries (VRB) and pumped storage (hydro) in order to maintain supply during periods of peak demand. We’re sure that Transpower will continue to keep a close watch on Ireland, as it sets the example of another island with similar wind resource, energy demand and transmission issues.

The EU Chief Foreign Policy Coordinator paints a bleak picture of water, food and energy resource availability due to climate change. Kansas now, where energy efficiency initiatives are being undertaken by large electricity utility. This is undertaken with the objective of offsetting demand for new coal-fired power stations due to the lower cost of energy efficiency compared with new generation capacity – good to see some positive action here.

Other stories we’ve heard include energy retailers swapping out inefficient fluorescent tubes for efficient lighting at no cost to the consumer – good job!

The OECD Environmental Outlook to 2030 expects global GHG emissions to grow by 37% to 2030, and 52% to 2050 unless new policy action is introduced.

World GDP is also expected to double by 2030.

Kivalina is a small village in Alaska, which is being flooded due to the changing Artic climate. A legal battle has been initiated where the village are suing oil companies, electricity utilities and a coal company due to their contribution to the problem. If second hand smoke causes cancer, they may have a point, but big tobacco wasn’t the lifeblood of a nation that energy is. “Quit electricity, we can help”, “0800 QUIT-ELEC”, or “every kWh you use is killing your children” just don’t seem to have the same appeal as the anti-smoking campaigns. Best of luck to them.

Because water is such a major constraint to some at the moment (hydro storage, farm irrigation, town supply etc) we look at crops that may be able to “hedge” a drought, and desalination using wind turbines for small sites, whilst General Electric contracts to provide desalinised water to a city in Algeria.

DUBLIN, Ireland--It's easier here than in most industrialized nations to green the electrical grid. Peak demand for electricity in the Republic of Ireland comes to about 5,000 megawatts, Graham Brennan, program manager for renewable-energy research and development at Sustainable Energy Ireland, the government's green-technology arm, said in an interview in SEI's Dublin offices. The peak occurred last December, at 4,907 megawatts.

Studies show that onshore and offshore wind turbines located in the republic could deliver approximately 5,000 megawatts of power over both parts of the island, he added. This figure takes into account only sites where it would be somewhat practical to put wind turbines, wind speeds, the geography, and the transmission grid.

If Northern Ireland is counted, the figure jumps to 6,000 megawatts. In all, the wind blowing over the island contains 8,000 megawatts of power. "There is enough onshore-accessible wind for about 100 percent of our electricity requirements," he said. "In terms of our accessible resources, the biggest and most successful so far is wind." The blustery situation has created a rush toward wind in the nation. The Republic of Ireland already has installed about 800 megawatts worth of wind turbines, and wind park developers have or are expected to file applications to put an additional 3,700 megawatts worth of wind onto the grid.

The government will likely surpass its goal of having 1,200 megawatts of wind by 2010. (Ireland's ultimate goal is to get 33 percent to 42 percent of its electricity from renewable sources by 2020, a fairly high figure for an industrialized nation.) While most of the turbines are located on land, developers are also looking at offshore wind, similar to the Arklow Bank park developed by General Electric and Airtricity . Tidal-power companies are also receiving a lot of attention.

In its half-century history, the EU has absorbed wave upon wave of immigrants.

There were the millions of political migrants fleeing Russian-imposed communism to western Europe throughout the cold war, the post-colonial and "guest worker" migrants who poured into western Europe in the boom years of the 1950s and 60s, the hundreds of thousands who escaped the Balkan wars of the 90s and the millions of economic migrants of the past decade seeking a better life. Now, according to the EU's two senior foreign policy officials, Europe needs to brace itself for a new wave of migration with a very different cause - global warming.

The ravages already being inflicted on parts of the developing world by climate change are engendering a new type of refugee, the "environmental migrant". Within a decade "there will be millions of environmental migrants, with climate change as one of the major drivers of this phenomenon," predict Javier Solana and Benita Ferrero-Waldner, the EU's chief foreign policy coordinator and the European commissioner for external relations. "Europe must expect substantially increased migratory pressure."

They point out that some countries already badly hit by global warming are demanding that the new phenomenon be recognised internationally as a valid reason for migration. The immigration alert is but one of seven "threats" that the two officials focus on in pointing to the security implications and the dangers to European interests thrown up by climate change. Their report, the first of its kind to be tabled to an EU summit - opening on Thursday in Brussels - amounts to a wake-up call to the governments of Europe, a demand that they start taking account of climate change and its impact in their security and foreign-policy decisions. The main message is that the immediate and devastating effects of global warming will be felt far away from Europe, with the poor suffering disproportionately in south Asia, the Middle East, central Asia, Africa and Latin America, but that Europe will ultimately bear the consequences.

This could be in the form of mass migration, destabilisation of parts of the world vital to European security, radicalisation of politics and populations, north-south conflict because of the perceived injustice of the causes and effects of global warming, famines caused by arable land loss, wars over water, energy, and other natural resources.

Solana and Ferrero-Waldner paint a picture of a very bleak and very messy new world order which may undermine the UN system. "The multilateral system is at risk if the international community fails to address the threats. Climate change impacts will fuel the politics of resentment between those most responsible for climate change and those most affected by it ... and drive political tension nationally and internationally."

This is not all futurology. The document points out that last year the UN's appeals for emergency humanitarian aid were all, bar one, connected to climate change. As far as international security is concerned, the report finds, global warming makes a bad situation worse. "Climate change is best viewed as a threat multiplier which exacerbates existing trends, tensions and instability," Solana and Ferrero-Waldner say. "The core challenge is that climate change threatens to overburden states and regions which are already fragile and conflict-prone. The risks include political and security risks that directly affect European interests."

The report highlights several forms of conflict that are likely to be driven by the planet heating up: · "Reduction of arable land, widespread shortage of water, diminishing food and fish stocks, increased flooding and prolonged droughts are already happening in many parts of the world," Solana and Ferrero-Waldner say. Fresh water availability could fall by up to 30% in some regions, causing farming losses, surging food prices and shortages, and civil unrest.

"Climate change will fuel existing conflicts over depleting resources." · Around one-fifth of the planet's population inhabits coastal zones which are threatened by rising sea levels and natural disasters. The Caribbean, central America and the east coasts of China and India are most exposed. "An increase in disasters and humanitarian crises will lead to immense pressure on the resources of donor countries." ·

The report notes that major land mass changes are expected in the course of the century from receding coastlines, meaning countries will lose territory, while desertification could have a similar effect. The result may be "a vicious circle of degradation, migration and conflicts over territory and borders that threatens the political stability of countries and regions". ·

A similar result may be expected in failing states, where frustration and disenchantment breed ethnic and religious strife and political radicalisation. · Competition for energy resources is already a cause of conflict. This may get worse, not least "because much of the world's hydrocarbon reserves are in regions vulnerable to the impacts of climate change and because many oil and gas producing states already face significant social, economic and demographic challenges." Europe, the officials imply, needs to get its act together if there is to be any chance of managing the apocalyptic scenarios outlined. What the report does not say is that if demographics are any measure of potential power, Europe's task is that much harder.

The average European is currently aged 39 and Europeans, including Russians, make up some 11% of the world's population of 6.7 billion. By 2050 that figure will have shrunk to 7%, with the average age of Europeans being over 47 and the elderly outnumbering children by more than two to one. A weaker Europe may have to cope with the challenges listed by Solana and Ferrero-Waldner, but environmental migrants may enlarge and rejuvenate its population.

Areas under threat

The Arctic The speed of polar ice cap melting will have a large geostrategic impact, with conflicts likely over the vast new mineral resources that will become accessible, as well as the opening of new sea routes for international trade.

Rival claims to the mineral wealth and shipping routes will challenge Europe's ability to secure its interests in the region. Latin America The Caribbean and central America are already badly affected by major hurricanes and extreme weather linked with El Niño. This will get worse, while weak governments will struggle to cope with social and political tension fuelled by climate change.

Africa Particularly vulnerable because of its low ability to cope with climate change, which is already a factor contributing to the Darfur catastrophe and conflict in the Horn of Africa. Three-quarters of arable rain-fed land in north Africa and the Sahel could be lost. Some 5 million people in the Nile delta could be affected by land losses due to rising sea levels and salinisation by 2050. Central Asia Trouble ahead. The authoritarian regimes of the region will become increasingly important because of mineral wealth.

But climate change means water shortages are already being felt. Kyrgyzstan has lost 1,000 glaciers over the past 40 years, while Tajikistan's glaciers have shrunk by one third. Farming and power generation are already being hit by water shortages. Middle East Water systems are already under intense stress, with around two-thirds of the Arab world dependent on water sources beyond their borders.

Water supply might fall by 60% this century in Israel. Significant decreases expected to hit Turkey, Iraq, Syria and Saudi Arabia, further destabilising the "vitally strategic region". South Asia Almost two billion Asians live within 35 miles of a coast and many of them are likely to be threatened by rising sea levels. Damage to farming will make it difficult to feed rapidly swelling populations.

Another billion people will be affected by a drop in meltwater from the Himalayas. These vulnerable populations will also be exposed to an increase in infectious diseases.

Scientists say they have made a key breakthrough in understanding the genes of plants that could lead to crops that can survive in a drought.

Researchers in Finland and the United States say they have discovered a gene that controls the amount of carbon dioxide a plant absorbs.

It also controls the amount of water vapour it releases into the atmosphere. This information could be important for food production and in regulating climate change.

Water control Plants play a crucial role in the regulation of the atmosphere by absorbing carbon dioxide from the air. They absorb the gas through tiny pores on their leaves called stomata and these pores also release water vapour as the plant grows. In extremely dry weather, a plant can lose 95% of its water in this way.

Scientists have been trying to find the gene that controls the response of the stomata for decades.

Now teams in Finland and California are reporting in the journal Nature that they have found a crucial genetic pathway that controls the opening and closing of these pores.

The researchers say that this understanding could allow them to modify plants so that they continue to absorb carbon dioxide but reduce the amount of water released into the atmosphere, enabling them to thrive in very dry conditions.

On the way Professor Jakko Kangasjarvi from the University of Helsinki says this work is the first step on that road "It opens the avenue, it is still several years away but before this publication, there was no single component which would have so many different effects... there was no target to modify, now we know the target," he said.

While the experiments have been done in a variety of cress, the scientists say that the underlying genetic mechanisms are the same in many food plants, including rice. It is believed that this new genetic understanding of how to control the amount of water that plants use could be commercialised within the next 20 years.